Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe55a421bc39a9501b7c14ca2524a1cc67fb3a4b3fbb160c9783c4e8e71cc5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 40c | 2,185$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 64c | 1,797$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 62c | 1,317$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.72 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.97 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 35c | 743.56$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.96 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 67c | 470$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 34c | 457$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 455.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 315.75$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.93 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes | 35c | 280$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 37c | 272.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791c…7910backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…17b6backed Yes | 39c | 256.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 61c | 254.1$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 63c | 244.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…ad91backed Yes | 39c | 226.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 203.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 64c | 186.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 71c | 178.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 30c | 174.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 158$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…5b0ebacked Yes | 36c | 155$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 65c | 149.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2649…9d3cbacked Yes | 33c | 148.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…6b97backed Yes | 38c | 143.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 78c | 125.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 116.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 64c | 101.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9f5cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 76c | 91.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 67c | 84.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…c167backed No | 70c | 68.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 36c | 66.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…361fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…d131backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 33c | 59.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…f3bfbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…50cbbacked Yes | 73c | 54.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dad…07d0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdf…b15abacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…e9c8backed Yes | 37c | 49.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b0…b2b6backed Yes | 34c | 45.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 55c | 41.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…ab11backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…7cd9backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…fac1backed Yes | 36c | 39.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 34c | 37.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 33c | 36.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked No | 69c | 36.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 63c | 32.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…0652backed Yes | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…01d1backed No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 62c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.