Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d9245c327911885cf094e8b4947aac513764e1775c540ad41803a0d1c05f80

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc851…cd2abacked No	52c	15,065$7,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,299.92	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes	49c	5,334$2,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,624	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	50c	3,859$1,917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,917.49	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	50c	2,017$1,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.81	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	51c	1,513$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.76	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	48c	1,265$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656.69	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes	45c	1,012$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	50c	1,011$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.25	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed No	50c	780.88$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.16	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	50c	747.49$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.08	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes	50c	690$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	48c	654.44$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.28	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4b5…16b0backed Yes	53c	566.98$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c0…8086backed No	67c	555.55$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.13	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e43…0f92backed No	56c	554.33$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.33	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No	50c	500$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.99	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked No	56c	500$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	47c	498.43$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.51	200	21.5%43 W · 157 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b3e…c621backed No	55c	455.83$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.83	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed No	55c	444.55$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.68	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+83%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes	32c	400$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No	48c	387.64$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.57	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	7c	379.8$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.38	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	51c	357.51$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.95	116	46.6%54 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d49…eb59backed Yes	53c	338.87$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.13	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No	50c	335.71$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.86	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No	49c	307.51$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.05	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+44%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes	45c	300$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.5	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7060…3b81backed Yes	54c	277.11$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ae…31bcbacked Yes	55c	273.23$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	44c	270$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.96	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebe0…f9d6backed Yes	48c	257$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	48c	213.22$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.28	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No	47c	212.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.88	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+4.9wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf400…361fbacked Yes	51c	211$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaed…089fbacked Yes	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes	51c	200$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.29	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	48c	199.99$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Yes	50c	198.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No	50c	185.89$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.58	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd8…e076backed No	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes	51c	174.14$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.69	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f2…0bc9backed Yes	53c	167.77$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5995…9089backed Yes	56c	159$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes	49c	154$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.46	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes	55c	145.36$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	49c	142.42$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.77	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes	52c	130.88$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes	51c	130$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.3	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdea4…15dbbacked No	55c	126.89$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…7af9backed Yes	55c	110.15$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes	46c	110$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.55	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	46c	109.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	59c	109$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d0b…f0cbbacked Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1509…94e0backed Yes	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes	52c	99.47$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.87	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6859…9377backed Yes	54c	98.14$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d64…527ebacked Yes	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	33cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6531…d38fbacked Yes	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes	51c	98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb573…d854backed Yes	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf303…355ebacked Yes	52c	95.54$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03be…f6d9backed No	67c	94.97$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.34	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Yes	55c	91.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa811…dc76backed Yes	53c	76.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed Yes	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x835e…24cabacked Yes	55c	72.27$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed No	50c	71$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes	48c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefec…1c98backed Yes	52c	67.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…a79abacked Yes	52c	60.4$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes	44c	54.55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb22b…be5ebacked Yes	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x259e…9ca2backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed No	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes	47c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9399…e1f8backed Yes	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes	51c	45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.29per pick	46cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…31c7backed No	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5517…ab11backed No	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…23f7backed No	49c	39.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bdf…b15abacked Yes	52c	38.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…858bbacked Yes	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f3f…da1ebacked Yes	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cd…5df2backed Yes	53c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcad0…d5bfbacked Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	38c	35.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	104	20.2%21 W · 83 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?this page
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event