Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x838c378940ecb667132d4aefe81255d07e03fac0db18e98ce0e7e4ffe6789f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 39c | 3,652$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.71 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 68c | 1,923$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.42 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…f7e7backed No | 28c | 1,755$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 48c | 1,696$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,350$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 74c | 1,167$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.37 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…16b0backed No | 35c | 1,155$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 69c | 1,084$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 70c | 1,023$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 35c | 1,000$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 867.1$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.69 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 39c | 800$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 76c | 727.23$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 61c | 712.89$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 61c | 657.69$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed No | 57c | 651.37$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 33c | 612.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 583$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 66c | 545.25$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…cf97backed Yes | 34c | 540.43$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…8086backed Yes | 77c | 538.25$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 35c | 488.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 42c | 453.79$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 65c | 421.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 57c | 420.72$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.31 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 65c | 404.21$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 53c | 402.14$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.14 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 62c | 400$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 65c | 397.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed No | 31c | 392.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…d861backed Yes | 75c | 369$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 28c | 345$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…e076backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…17b6backed No | 30c | 329.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 50c | 325$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…d7a1backed No | 31c | 317.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 65c | 306.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…4eb8backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 68c | 274.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed No | 37c | 270.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 38c | 270$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…f586backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…01d1backed No | 32c | 252.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked No | 77c | 251.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 65c | 241.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 239.85$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 230.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.4 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 47c | 227$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed No | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…7082backed No | 29c | 216.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…54bbbacked No | 32c | 198.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 197.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes | 72c | 188.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 69c | 179.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 178.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 173.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 29c | 168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 63c | 159$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…8d47backed No | 31c | 158.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 68c | 156$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 72c | 153.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…5ba0backed Yes | 64c | 149.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 66c | 141.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 57c | 136.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…a3edbacked No | 36c | 125.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…a8f9backed Yes | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 61c | 124.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 69c | 111.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2649…9d3cbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…75c9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 95.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes | 68c | 92.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 75c | 79.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 70c | 70.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…930abacked No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 68c | 64.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 29c | 61.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…216ebacked No | 33c | 61.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb047…3cb4backed No | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.