TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No39c3,652$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.716717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes68c1,923$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.423043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccb9…f7e7backed No28c1,755$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No1c1,750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes48c1,696$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.525453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes59c1,350$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5483158.1%18 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+54.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes74c1,167$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.374847.9%23 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b5…16b0backed No35c1,155$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes69c1,084$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.541233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes70c1,023$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed No35c1,000$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+220.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No25c867.1$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6919026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e43…0f92backed No39c800$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.371533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed No76c727.23$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.92966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes61c712.89$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes61c657.69$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.771457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a2…5e16backed No57c651.37$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No33c612.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No3c583$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes66c545.25$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.392142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3be…cf97backed Yes34c540.43$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+129.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c0…8086backed Yes77c538.25$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.45650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No35c488.88$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1731513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes42c453.79$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.974548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes65c421.99$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.42951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes57c420.72$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.311478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes65c404.21$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.642240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes53c402.14$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1410420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes62c400$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1546355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x07b6…7935backed Yes65c397.56$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.654100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+135.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4ab…7e31backed No31c392.6$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8218…d861backed Yes75c369$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No28c345$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd8…e076backed No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e43…17b6backed No30c329.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No50c325$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.923545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4535…d7a1backed No31c317.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes65c306.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d3c…4eb8backed No33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1057243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes68c274.68$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.97265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c8…8618backed No37c270.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No38c270$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.515028%14 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bd…f586backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…01d1backed No32c252.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd8…372bbacked No77c251.8$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes65c241.24$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes57c240$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes68c239.85$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.718135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes25c230.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.412941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No47c227$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.245749.1%28 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafdc…e9c9backed No20c220$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3465…7082backed No29c216.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed No38c210.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664723.4%11 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf483…54bbbacked No32c198.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No34c197.09$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4510324.3%25 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes72c188.3$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes65c180$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes69c179.27$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.415446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c178.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.073187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c173.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2620021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f56…9302backed No29c168$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.721717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes63c159$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.832070%14 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ee…8d47backed No31c158.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes68c156$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed Yes72c153.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes26c150$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53070%21 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48b7…5ba0backed Yes64c149.9$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes66c141.8$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.871435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes57c136.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.93751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1115…a3edbacked No36c125.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x749f…a8f9backed Yes65c125$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes61c124.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.411361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes69c111.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2649…9d3cbacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1803…772ebacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72b…75c9backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+106.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes72c95.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5424046.3%111 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes68c92.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes75c79.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes70c70.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.081764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-13.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9178…930abacked No28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes68c64.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d64…527ebacked Yes77c64.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.691421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No29c61.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ba…216ebacked No33c61.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb047…3cb4backed No35c57.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.