Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b15784c906e9bf10bd3b1eb978e68de4d6b6fb2a0de228311b90c9f6b92af67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 16c | 3,526$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 34c | 2,072$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.17 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 53c | 1,637$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.97 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 79c | 1,510$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.94 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 66c | 1,492$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…2378backed No | 9c | 1,437$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 14c | 1,355$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…4a6fbacked No | 37c | 1,261$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 59c | 1,202$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 6c | 1,145$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 29c | 1,062$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.23 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…bdf7backed No | 39c | 970.31$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…16b0backed Yes | 76c | 924.17$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 35c | 858.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 24c | 854.87$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 40c | 775.46$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 50c | 773.38$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.69 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 76c | 769.98$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 64c | 740.09$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…cf97backed Yes | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed No | 39c | 642.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 73c | 620$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 65c | 608.02$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.23 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 594.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…be5abacked No | 35c | 569.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 63c | 552.98$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 79c | 521.26$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 519.94$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked No | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed No | 50c | 482.37$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 476.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 53c | 445.73$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.2 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 47c | 422.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 75c | 418.67$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…7b98backed No | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 60c | 364.05$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 66c | 349.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 55c | 323.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 59c | 312.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 61c | 303.38$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 34c | 297.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…ad91backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 59c | 279.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 64c | 246.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 236.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 7c | 225.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…0ea7backed Yes | 60c | 220$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 62c | 211.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5b…0a02backed No | 14c | 205.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 72c | 203.65$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 15c | 200.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed No | 37c | 190$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 70c | 189.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 58c | 185$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 176.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 53c | 170.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…ca04backed Yes | 62c | 161.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…abbbbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 66c | 150.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 54c | 149.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked No | 37c | 142.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 139.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…5ba0backed Yes | 72c | 139.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…01d1backed No | 37c | 135.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 71c | 131.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 46c | 129.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…178abacked No | 48c | 125.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…d309backed Yes | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +130%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…ede8backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc66…47a9backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 59c | 99.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…4ff3backed Yes | 74c | 94.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…e902backed No | 27c | 94.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…6113backed No | 56c | 88.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…f2a9backed No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 68c | 88.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…75c9backed No | 37c | 81.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…07f2backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…db10backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…5909backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed No | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 61c | 53.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…d592backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…0803backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.