TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd685…8be9backed Yes17c6,202$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.691546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes11c3,437$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.89911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes18c3,358$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.0319026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes22c2,731$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.771233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No79c2,692$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.085453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes24c2,454$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes21c2,406$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No79c2,018$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.223050%15 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d27…7cf5backed No76c1,991$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No76c1,306$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8812941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No79c1,244$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.223043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No80c1,214$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.915749.1%28 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No78c1,210$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.192642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes20c1,140$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No80c1,093$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c918.17$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8320021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked Yes19c912.83$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes20c722.5$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No78c599.96$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.996355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c540.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.699414.9%14 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes17c529.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.79018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba68…ab07backed Yes19c521$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes19c519.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick65cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56cb…0b6abacked Yes20c500.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…8d43backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe964…f5a9backed Yes20c500$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8714…0966backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58af…162fbacked Yes18c499.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes18c477.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.013622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes22c450$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205e…de33backed Yes24c419.04$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes25c404.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+105.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7211646.6%54 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbb…32afbacked Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No73c384.78$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.432030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb03d…6472backed Yes27c371$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes18c347.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1110420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed Yes18c337$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes18c299.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No78c260.44$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fdd…9a76backed Yes20c246.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb573…d854backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdf…8cd0backed Yes22c221.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+81.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed Yes23c216.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No75c215.86$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.68924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…7af9backed Yes24c203.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes22c200.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12910.3%3 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-54.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x94fd…e0b9backed Yes21c198.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b76…18a6backed Yes22c195.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes21c185.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.953240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf303…355ebacked Yes22c182.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes22c178.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5b…edbabacked Yes20c165$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Yes25c162.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No75c149.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.59853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a4…1ba5backed Yes19c149.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d6…166fbacked Yes21c146.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes21c143.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…fff6backed Yes24c137.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No79c134$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.75028%14 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes18c125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8617…e460backed Yes20c122.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c119.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.173187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes23c114$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d87…ca5abacked Yes22c112.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0920…19a4backed Yes18c108.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb3…a32dbacked Yes19c105.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86e…8642backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e93…6a20backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87b5…df63backed Yes20c101.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202010%2 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes18c100.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410324.3%25 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes19c100.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d1…be4ebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ac…2d85backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee1…ad35backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b7…a0c9backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab22…762dbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6b…9f5cbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5de…3ffcbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5440…4c02backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…930abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…6113backed Yes26c97.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ca…9064backed No74c96.76$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa881…de70backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84dd…9ca1backed Yes22c91.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0006…5906backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No76c89.46$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.472142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.