Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab54260a41976fa53081fbada5eb1694e74d40e89891b3f34c44de079ecd44b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 17c | 6,202$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 11c | 3,437$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 18c | 3,358$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.03 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 22c | 2,731$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 79c | 2,692$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.08 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 24c | 2,454$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 21c | 2,406$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 79c | 2,018$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed No | 76c | 1,991$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 76c | 1,306$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 79c | 1,244$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 1,214$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.91 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 78c | 1,210$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes | 20c | 1,140$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 80c | 1,093$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 918.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 19c | 912.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 20c | 722.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 599.96$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 540.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 17c | 529.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 19c | 521$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 19c | 519.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56cb…0b6abacked Yes | 20c | 500.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed Yes | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…0966backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked Yes | 18c | 499.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 477.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…de33backed Yes | 24c | 419.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 25c | 404.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 73c | 384.78$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb03d…6472backed Yes | 27c | 371$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 347.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 18c | 337$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 299.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 78c | 260.44$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…9a76backed Yes | 20c | 246.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb573…d854backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…8cd0backed Yes | 22c | 221.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 23c | 216.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 75c | 215.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…7af9backed Yes | 24c | 203.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 22c | 200.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…e0b9backed Yes | 21c | 198.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed Yes | 22c | 195.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 21c | 185.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…355ebacked Yes | 22c | 182.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 22c | 178.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5b…edbabacked Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 25c | 162.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 75c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…1ba5backed Yes | 19c | 149.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…166fbacked Yes | 21c | 146.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes | 21c | 143.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…fff6backed Yes | 24c | 137.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 20c | 122.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 119.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes | 23c | 114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…ca5abacked Yes | 22c | 112.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…19a4backed Yes | 18c | 108.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…a32dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…df63backed Yes | 20c | 101.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 100.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 19c | 100.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…be4ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…ad35backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…a0c9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…762dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9f5cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…3ffcbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…4c02backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…930abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…6113backed Yes | 26c | 97.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…9064backed No | 74c | 96.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…de70backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9ca1backed Yes | 22c | 91.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…5906backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 76c | 89.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.