Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Elon talk by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301d94fc95cf16b9c29306e7ecae924d965359055c1d85965b97861a9dae33e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 17,678$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.52 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 9c | 10,452$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,735$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,122$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…9067backed Yes | 10c | 1,073$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 806.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 10c | 800$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 661.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…9d90backed Yes | 26c | 617.03$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…ba5bbacked Yes | 24c | 554.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 5c | 550$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 9c | 503.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Yes | 9c | 399.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 7c | 387.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 7c | 242.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 14c | 240.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 9c | 218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 202.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…edd1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed Yes | 8c | 195.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 152.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 13c | 141.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +214%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8407…01fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dac…2985backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…2b57backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 70c | 39.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…c762backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.