Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab6b763890213240f48abb8f1873a40b3424238a67326c9495055ee8a658bc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 9c | 42,715$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.78 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 71c | 31,001$21,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,017.79 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 71c | 21,276$15,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,134.23 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 14,708$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.33 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 25c | 12,348$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.12 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 17c | 9,876$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,500$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 6c | 8,942$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 2c | 5,952$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 7c | 5,425$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 4,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,924$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…7935backed Yes | 5c | 3,595$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,744$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…7995backed Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…066dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,441$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 27c | 2,092$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,579$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.94 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,450$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 26c | 948.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 59c | 910$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 15c | 820$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 4c | 795$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…33fbbacked Yes | 6c | 662.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 80c | 645.93$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…cd03backed No | 76c | 555.73$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 73c | 554$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 12c | 499.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 18c | 338.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 25c | 284.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b3b0backed Yes | 6c | 209.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 68c | 175.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed No | 65c | 149$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 71c | 91.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 77c | 65.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 76c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…6823backed No | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $109K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.