TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$559,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$492,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $559,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes23c112,435$25,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,431.0622216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes27c28,393$7,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,568.6658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No76c21,056$15,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,150.8737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes43c17,969$7,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.0187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No54c14,481$7,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,625.95761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes12c12,879$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.154047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes28c11,350$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.325824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0401428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes39c7,712$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.0519439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No72c6,780$4,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.586468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked No77c5,753$4,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.3213561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No79c5,500$4,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1351450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes19c4,600$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.1528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No68c3,929$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.2555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No38c3,144$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.958231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No48c3,076$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.6124654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No66c3,029$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No76c2,600$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.5213863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed No31c2,375$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+136%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes36c1,918$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.4663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ac…7935backed Yes16c1,542$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No77c1,500$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3402142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No33c1,493$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes6c1,327$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.494242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Yes30c1,285$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.33147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-88.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed No57c1,074$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.381172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes7c998.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.96723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…2370backed No50c916.3$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed Yes35c893.07$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.358428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e4…25abbacked Yes32c805.24$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1462…156ebacked Yes32c750$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No30c705$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.857652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No46c700$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3795453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2e…517ebacked Yes6c666.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes27c539.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.691827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x016e…17e6backed Yes29c510.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No66c469.64$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.332744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes29c419.05$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.294318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f57…f904backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+570.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832a…ca6bbacked No30c400.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes23c399.6$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.911020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No74c398.76$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.868038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes23c360.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.112420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No30c350$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No78c346.36$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6222550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c5d…8d58backed No59c339.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked No69c320$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.21861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88f5…828abacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a53…406ebacked Yes31c293.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed No50c254.91$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c246.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1501…abd5backed Yes11c236.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…ac85backed Yes7c222.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76de…caf5backed No53c220.27$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.013100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03be…f6d9backed Yes31c217.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.391369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf44f…cd17backed No69c151.83$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.074100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c3…eccfbacked Yes53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.51978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+35.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f84…f1c4backed No48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee0…1c08backed No78c147.29$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d1…8810backed No68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059b…343abacked No74c139.53$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b7…c8a8backed No67c132.56$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb71c…dd68backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes21c118.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.095637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c112$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a2…af53backed No48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa663…438dbacked Yes35c102.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9b…303ebacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9e…dc6abacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761a…16e6backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282190.5%19 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b98…d5d8backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdab…088abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d9…eec0backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb239…fe10backed No60c94.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.791181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88fe…f516backed No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc536…ae66backed No75c69.77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44e…4d45backed No28c67.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.13844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No21c60.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0721236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bbf…c59fbacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e5d…7af4backed No59c53.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.934369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x36ce…0e38backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…799bbacked Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b4a…b8cfbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c0…93e6backed No74c47.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes27c46.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.581910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes69c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1128…d574backed No60c42.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0462…da6dbacked No62c42.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9c…07f6backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+147.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00b7…1dd5backed No72c30.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8e…e5b0backed No74c28.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcd…5d8ebacked No46c25.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8a…02efbacked No56c24.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.