Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $114K August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4342f3b5ef1fece05b1d48c59af62a1cfbf3a750f83a16d4ef48a2ebbbe37ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 60c | 12,872$7,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,723.13 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 47c | 11,225$5,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,991.15 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 0c | 8,980$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 43c | 8,311$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,559.17 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 28c | 7,485$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 18c | 7,104$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.49 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 56c | 7,062$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.44 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…04cebacked Yes | 27c | 4,884$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 29c | 4,140$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.98 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 49c | 3,839$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.22 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 19c | 3,320$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 3c | 2,347$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,303$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6048…8513backed Yes | 1c | 2,022$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 1,260$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,211$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed No | 40c | 1,053$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 41c | 957.58$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 20c | 900.25$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 75c | 800$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.65 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed No | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…3e03backed No | 37c | 558.58$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +221%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 50c | 505.56$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…25abbacked No | 57c | 367.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 30c | 350$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 341$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed No | 38c | 249$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 59c | 236.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509c…e581backed Yes | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 16c | 201.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 58c | 198.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 52c | 186.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 34c | 175.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…9c2dbacked No | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…8afabacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…2f34backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed No | 63c | 99.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…23dcbacked No | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 63c | 56.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…def4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…b035backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed No | 43c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4b…d1d0backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fd…7cedbacked Yes | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K August 25–31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $109K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.