Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679423dd16b566ac291d2c33aaa4693a1489a1eb03f5035630d84dcbd1df52b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 48c | 17,891$8,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,373.97 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 10c | 17,164$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 65c | 14,072$9,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,927.45 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 65c | 8,764$5,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.06 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 55c | 5,742$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.04 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 19c | 5,020$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,066.2 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 22c | 4,747$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 23c | 3,833$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 42c | 2,036$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.27 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 59c | 1,850$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.6 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 37c | 1,778$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.65 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 36c | 1,685$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 75c | 1,620$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 38c | 1,607$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.81 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 39c | 623.08$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 43c | 576.3$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 21c | 485.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.86 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 45c | 463.69$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.75 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4a…b8cfbacked No | 31c | 416.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 14c | 398.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.14 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 52c | 388.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 306.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 63c | 305.6$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 58c | 172.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 54c | 165.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 44c | 145.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f1…474cbacked No | 60c | 141.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 61c | 105.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…b701backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…af53backed No | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac4…c8ccbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…fe10backed No | 51c | 62.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 34c | 53.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e844backed Yes | 49c | 49.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed No | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…feaabacked No | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…b75cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked Yes | 41c | 36.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…86b7backed No | 64c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…9e36backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 61c | 17.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $109K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.