Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5213cf63250183b52fac92f8ae78f1333ea7e0dd28d3f45fe7d9a907eceb88f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 52c | 32,345$16,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,794.27 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 10,380$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,287.47 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 8,349$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.89 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 55c | 8,112$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.99 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Yes | 38c | 5,569$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 55c | 4,082$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…04cebacked Yes | 56c | 1,913$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76ab…506dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,866$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 30c | 1,711$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.01 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 1,703$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed No | 55c | 1,615$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 57c | 1,404$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.19 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 4c | 980.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 27c | 900$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes | 45c | 632$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.09 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 11c | 509.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 40c | 500.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 25c | 313.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…27edbacked Yes | 35c | 275$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 64c | 199.29$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 61c | 120.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…978ebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa655…3c6abacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…af53backed No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaee…b610backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 58.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…8348backed Yes | 36c | 38.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $109K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 25–31?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.