Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de7d3a8cb29764fc91c5941a00e1cf010b9ee0f2f4b0cd82a9e0737ffed0c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,689,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,308,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,689,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3475…795cbacked Yes | 4c | 148,018$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,533.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 1c | 92,226$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 4c | 91,529$4,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,105.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 87,490$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.58 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 3c | 80,795$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.28 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 1c | 80,440$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…f9aebacked Yes | 1c | 68,691$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 54,055$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 47,412$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.16 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 5c | 46,204$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 46,118$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.62 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 5c | 42,567$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 5c | 38,518$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 4c | 32,188$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.04 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…301bbacked Yes | 5c | 30,171$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 29,405$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 28,698$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.53 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 26,946$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 3c | 26,627$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 23,810$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…5b18backed Yes | 1c | 23,374$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 23,288$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.94 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…2ab3backed Yes | 6c | 21,116$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 18,065$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 6c | 17,959$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 2c | 17,524$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…7415backed Yes | 4c | 16,370$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 3c | 16,156$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 14,610$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.53 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 1c | 13,047$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 5c | 12,511$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 12,366$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.69 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 5c | 12,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 1c | 11,978$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 4c | 11,197$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes | 5c | 10,786$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 10c | 10,279$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Yes | 5c | 10,148$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…cf85backed Yes | 5c | 9,651$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…d6aebacked Yes | 4c | 9,474$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 5c | 9,268$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 8,811$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf480…7b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 8,582$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 5c | 8,433$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.77 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 7,570$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.04 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,503$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,393$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,393$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,347$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…74b1backed Yes | 6c | 6,705$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,316$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 3c | 6,167$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,018$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,695$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Yes | 6c | 5,400$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…2e6ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…e526backed Yes | 4c | 4,415$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 8c | 4,338$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2531…d9f1backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 11c | 4,073$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,900$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 5c | 3,729$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…1f2dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,675$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 3c | 3,620$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…35d0backed Yes | 6c | 3,452$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,158$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…95e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…9c89backed Yes | 3c | 2,940$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,888$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 5c | 2,822$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 4c | 2,688$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 7c | 2,608$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 5c | 2,605$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.73 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 8c | 2,600$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 2,551$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28db…032dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,517$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 4c | 2,443$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,424$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…929bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,340$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…cf1cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,247$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…3b59backed Yes | 2c | 2,185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed Yes | 5c | 2,171$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb79…7a8cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,061$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…5cc5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…c393backed Yes | 5c | 1,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,909$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,903$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 3c | 1,833$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…b536backed Yes | 6c | 1,704$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…e5afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,640$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,580$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.