TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x662c…bfe7backed No24c27,003$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,588.628552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes30c8,168$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,736.442015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f3…76fbbacked No73c6,899$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.052634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes30c6,752$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,696.061450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2136…51b8backed No9c6,172$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.512437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes47c5,435$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.6136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes30c4,440$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.453732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No68c4,199$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.518137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No2c4,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c3,400$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed No73c3,261$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.754337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No43c3,253$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.799535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No9c2,599$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.464769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No67c2,570$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.5518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes24c2,041$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.4642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No67c1,992$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.9133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes22c1,812$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.9119445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed No2c1,700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes28c1,593$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.117817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes34c1,404$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.5720823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes31c1,400$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96119930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…4821backed Yes26c1,243$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.42934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No71c1,082$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.1316061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6903046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c967.92$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No70c809.22$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.459153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes27c800$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes27c761.39$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.5920736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes29c748.46$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.365633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No77c720.81$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No3c718.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.556944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No71c708.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de8…4069backed No72c694.61$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf5a…ab52backed No72c684.17$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No72c661.37$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.0621160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes33c653$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9827643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c53…0991backed Yes41c611.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No68c590.07$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.6427047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x120d…710ebacked No72c559.41$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed Yes36c558.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c530.29$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e54…8f1ebacked Yes34c500.23$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.231816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed Yes32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.493043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes28c500$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+81.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No68c482.02$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.3617646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed No13c477.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6217347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c465.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.2286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes31c439.94$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Yes32c434.1$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.15621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8699…aa5abacked No71c424.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.671361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes34c410$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ac4…c8ccbacked Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes40c394.97$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.532373.9%17 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes36c389.41$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…838ebacked Yes29c383.05$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+74.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed No68c368.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+293.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No78c367.46$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.47252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebd4…4bfcbacked No72c350$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes29c347.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.973823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes30c346.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.144240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x184f…e0b2backed Yes29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.831346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes31c335.34$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.382524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe241…ba7abacked Yes27c332.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No72c319.77$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.13036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No72c318.76$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2314843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666e…aa2dbacked Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+121.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No70c298.67$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.07540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e57…7a52backed Yes57c279.4$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.013363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes35c271.63$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.632060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58f…37a4backed No5c271.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.581353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e48…3e67backed Yes31c270.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes31c250$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.522931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes29c249.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.999642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa577…b06abacked No72c244.71$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.247561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes26c239.78$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4d…ca54backed No67c230$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.13145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes66c227.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.623063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+78.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No76c226.74$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.322711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c225.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No74c225.64$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.245927.1%16 W · 43 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No73c222$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.063458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked No72c201.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.232245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1387045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No70c199.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.914743.5%64 W · 83 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9f…ee16backed Yes16c187.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes31c170.03$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes31c170$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8519534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.210861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes31c161.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.313237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04af…06d7backed Yes38c159.32$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.322846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2523420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes26c154.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.562114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No68c153.04$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6426423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd794…b277backed Yes30c150.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…24d3backed Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed No30c149.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511255.4%62 W · 50 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58f6…c600backed Yes34c145.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0790…fd72backed Yes36c141.67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.671030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.