Stocks · resolved market
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb46432765f4f6e902618d2746b289d4fb4a80c0d0cb9697c2dfda186cd0e0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c44…28e9backed Yes | 5c | 9,635$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,113$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…1b03backed Yes | 2c | 4,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,863$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 2c | 3,092$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Yes | 7c | 3,076$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 2,447$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Yes | 7c | 2,359$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…b90dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,076$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,817$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,417$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,380$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…87e3backed Yes | 4c | 1,093$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 7c | 918.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 854.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Yes | 3c | 820.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 6c | 810$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 666.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 643.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 5c | 618.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 593.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff8…9cd6backed Yes | 2c | 591.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…3a52backed Yes | 3c | 573.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 5c | 564.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes | 3c | 489.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 3c | 444.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…0630backed Yes | 3c | 429.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 5c | 421.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa01e…6cc8backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked Yes | 13c | 390.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 384.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 383.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…01f3backed Yes | 12c | 371.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 15c | 336.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…1a83backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…eb09backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…8baebacked Yes | 14c | 321.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 4c | 304.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93f…ef7dbacked Yes | 6c | 278.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes | 7c | 258.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…2ccdbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1354backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 11c | 141.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 123.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…c63dbacked Yes | 12c | 81.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 41.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.