Middle East · resolved market
Syria strikes Israel by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x191323d36ce7e37b3b260380eb2208bdd37f891b331b98048a80d312bd4dcf5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 7,073$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 5c | 5,060$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 10c | 4,978$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 6c | 1,706$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,678$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,066$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 1,026$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 9c | 887$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 30c | 791.26$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.38 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 784.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 784.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 751.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 8c | 625$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 3c | 580.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 558.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 555.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 4c | 550$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 3c | 519$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 456.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 3c | 455$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…c23bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 3c | 396.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 4c | 383$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 349.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 339.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 3c | 312.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 8c | 311$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 10c | 196.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x800c…e4c6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Yes | 30c | 162.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 75c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.