TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52d2…2280backed Yes70c7,643$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes69c4,406$3,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.223839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1730…0885backed No22c4,009$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No10c2,382$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No8c2,179$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3712654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes71c2,062$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.2736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No1c2,050$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.661879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes56c1,542$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7d…f545backed No17c1,329$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.791233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+224.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…b841backed No32c1,268$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked No26c1,181$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes78c1,064$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.33253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c1,031$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes52c989.06$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No25c901.88$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.92698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes63c876.11$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.1134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No7c845.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No58c762.15$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.821741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No28c760.22$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4919445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed No27c748.63$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+146.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No14c745.87$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.423748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f5…6a9abacked No3c683.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes62c647.96$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes31c547.5$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.5138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bc…8e19backed No22c544.8$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c525.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.771,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46be…4ad3backed No17c518.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed No11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.991915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc2…af19backed No4c488.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No35c484.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeecc…ef84backed No51c470$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.076547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No41c460$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No2c442.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0213033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe107…1a5abacked No23c436.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd2…e756backed No31c422.56$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630d…e04bbacked No13c403.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c394.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.254769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes52c327.85$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.595042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes62c325$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.753935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No56c297.86$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c287.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes38c286.11$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8145843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes59c266$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.323633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked No42c261$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.817142.3%30 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed No39c255.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x005d…4691backed No16c230.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No22c222.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5417449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed No31c218.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.436546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c218.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.835330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No26c208.53$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.229626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No22c202.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.268616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No53c200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31cc…ceeebacked No15c188.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes80c184.14$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.374678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes55c174.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9917646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No7c172.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.875123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67c…608bbacked No7c171.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed No27c169.51$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.34242.9%18 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7c…56b0backed No59c168.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No40c165.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes71c165$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.352740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No10c164.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes38c157.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes60c148$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9119428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked Yes71c141.04$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2055…4542backed No74c135.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5297backed No27c135$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ed…28afbacked No40c130.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked No59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ff1…4d1fbacked No21c117.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+163.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No12c116.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3d…9220backed No52c116.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6160%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x055e…de32backed No27c109.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed No16c103.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37a5…2ef4backed No36c101.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed9…4a4fbacked No25c100.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a0…506fbacked No14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed No29c96.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc50c…58e8backed No35c90.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…75a6backed No27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51d…373bbacked No30c72.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.952030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb76e…85e6backed No18c70.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes77c66.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.216061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ce3…5e45backed No41c65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed No39c59.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233030%9 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No54c51.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No34c51.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed No61c50.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.634955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc031…2c43backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203050%15 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dfc…b253backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a24…1219backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c47.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes30c43.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4322333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.