Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e50540528d229362c6e6cf0e4b5ed96c558730818341907c35540656fab5878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 70c | 7,643$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 69c | 4,406$3,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.2 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…0885backed No | 22c | 4,009$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 10c | 2,382$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.67 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 8c | 2,179$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 71c | 2,062$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.27 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 1c | 2,050$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,542$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.3 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 17c | 1,329$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…b841backed No | 32c | 1,268$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked No | 26c | 1,181$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 78c | 1,064$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 1,031$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 52c | 989.06$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.21 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 25c | 901.88$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 63c | 876.11$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.11 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 7c | 845.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 58c | 762.15$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 28c | 760.22$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed No | 27c | 748.63$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 14c | 745.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…6a9abacked No | 3c | 683.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 62c | 647.96$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.59 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 31c | 547.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.51 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…8e19backed No | 22c | 544.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 525.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed No | 17c | 518.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed No | 4c | 488.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 35c | 484.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed No | 51c | 470$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 41c | 460$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 442.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…1a5abacked No | 23c | 436.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…e756backed No | 31c | 422.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…e04bbacked No | 13c | 403.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 394.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 52c | 327.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 62c | 325$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 56c | 297.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 287.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 286.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 59c | 266$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 42c | 261$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 39c | 255.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…4691backed No | 16c | 230.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 22c | 222.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 31c | 218.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 218.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 26c | 208.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 22c | 202.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…ceeebacked No | 15c | 188.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 80c | 184.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 55c | 174.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 7c | 172.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked No | 7c | 171.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 27c | 169.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed No | 59c | 168.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 40c | 165.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 71c | 165$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 10c | 164.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 38c | 157.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 60c | 148$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 71c | 141.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed No | 74c | 135.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5297backed No | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…28afbacked No | 40c | 130.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked No | 21c | 117.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…9220backed No | 52c | 116.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 27c | 109.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed No | 16c | 103.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…2ef4backed No | 36c | 101.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed9…4a4fbacked No | 25c | 100.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…506fbacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 29c | 96.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…58e8backed No | 35c | 90.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked No | 30c | 72.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…85e6backed No | 18c | 70.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 77c | 66.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…5e45backed No | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed No | 39c | 59.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 51.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 61c | 50.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…2c43backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…b253backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…1219backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 30c | 43.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.