Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x541e7d1e5a28d216c7f250db4c005514ff10485b9f25c60b472079784499b63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 70c | 12,328$8,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,677.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 44c | 10,737$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,037.75 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 66c | 4,690$3,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.48 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 38c | 4,684$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked No | 50c | 3,413$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 49c | 3,168$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 56c | 2,757$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 42c | 2,161$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.46 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 33c | 1,685$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…df32backed Yes | 38c | 1,575$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 11c | 1,415$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 25c | 1,390$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 60c | 1,211$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.5 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 48c | 1,041$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.79 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 26c | 870.65$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 59c | 830.73$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.05 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…e54bbacked Yes | 72c | 802.25$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed No | 66c | 758.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 55c | 746.22$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.95 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 54c | 735.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.17 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 729.07$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 63c | 711.33$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.82 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x341f…0d24backed Yes | 22c | 640.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 50c | 633.56$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 47c | 600$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…58c0backed Yes | 8c | 591.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ed4abacked Yes | 46c | 580.46$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 53c | 562.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…2251backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 10c | 491.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.82 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 54c | 479.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 36c | 470$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 25c | 461.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 65c | 460.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 66c | 456.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…e2f4backed Yes | 57c | 441.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 42c | 440.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 49c | 411.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked Yes | 70c | 409.69$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 34c | 394.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 63c | 386.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 69c | 370.77$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…2be8backed Yes | 53c | 367.57$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 44c | 352.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 26c | 316.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed No | 79c | 309.65$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 10c | 301.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.14 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…592fbacked Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 278.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 44c | 274.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked Yes | 40c | 263.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 8c | 260$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…81e2backed Yes | 45c | 221.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 63c | 214.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…c765backed No | 68c | 211.82$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 49c | 203.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 200.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 49c | 199.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed No | 50c | 186.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…becfbacked No | 52c | 176.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…9bf9backed No | 57c | 175.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…02b9backed No | 72c | 166.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 32c | 163$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 62c | 160.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 63c | 159.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4716backed Yes | 10c | 156.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 36c | 156.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…33f4backed Yes | 53c | 153.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 60c | 152.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 50c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…b89dbacked No | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…3695backed No | 58c | 144.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 52c | 144.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…f2d8backed No | 51c | 141.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 36c | 138.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 66c | 137.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 64c | 134.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked No | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 51c | 121.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 51c | 118.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 108.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 15c | 105.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…ea94backed No | 60c | 105.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…5950backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 99.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…c927backed No | 52c | 98.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.