Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7544f5555e597c1f8128f1304e43da885272688d50403d0038d73a29c60a9224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 80c | 4,674$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 15c | 1,523$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 3c | 1,340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 21c | 1,205$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…c9f0backed No | 10c | 1,153$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 71c | 715.94$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 13c | 701.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 699.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 73c | 697.46$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.47 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 37c | 664.34$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.11 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…dc6abacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 9c | 482.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 29c | 354.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 340.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed No | 25c | 314.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 7c | 280$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +201%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 36c | 267.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 77c | 259.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 49c | 204.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 52c | 183$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…a8c3backed Yes | 69c | 169.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 19c | 164.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 63c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 28c | 146.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 30c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 73c | 137.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 15c | 136.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 62c | 136.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…0f90backed No | 61c | 125.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d49…d5a3backed Yes | 60c | 120.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 35c | 120.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 17c | 114.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 24c | 100.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 100.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2a…c016backed No | 72c | 100.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 51c | 85.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…024dbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…f611backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 54.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed No | 73c | 49.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…96a7backed No | 63c | 47.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…1030backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…622bbacked No | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.