Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ddcec6c6d45671431af6bfa0bee63f4e5a7fd6b6ba661f6e5b3a5b0b307a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 58c | 4,053$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 44c | 3,546$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.31 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,594$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.91 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 5c | 2,512$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 38c | 2,112$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.76 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 68c | 1,985$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed Yes | 18c | 1,563$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 20c | 1,283$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 17c | 900.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 20c | 814.2$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f93…5f54backed Yes | 64c | 765.01$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 14c | 717.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 667.63$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 28c | 594.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…6e3ebacked No | 45c | 588.14$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 582.06$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 78c | 502.65$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 22c | 499.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 56c | 462.16$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 71c | 454.23$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 56c | 453.67$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 26c | 453.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 23c | 416.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked Yes | 19c | 411.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked No | 49c | 410.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…592fbacked Yes | 49c | 408.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 365.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 35c | 328.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 77c | 327.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 299.98$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 35c | 289.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 16c | 280.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 59c | 266.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 37c | 256.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…27d0backed No | 33c | 250$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 234.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 18c | 226.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 219.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 17c | 208.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 72c | 202.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…49b0backed Yes | 49c | 202.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d46dbacked Yes | 25c | 201.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 50c | 201.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 15c | 182.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…2821backed No | 72c | 166.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…4692backed No | 61c | 164.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…6a9fbacked No | 49c | 163.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 161.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ea…e03ebacked Yes | 20c | 159.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 21c | 154.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…dc6abacked Yes | 26c | 147.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 79c | 139.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 68c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked Yes | 25c | 120.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked No | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…c34cbacked Yes | 48c | 105.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +525.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 57c | 100.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…ceeebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…3ec6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…af22backed No | 71c | 98.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked No | 58c | 81.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 20c | 68.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed No | 59c | 66.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…6acabacked No | 76c | 65.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…2df4backed No | 77c | 64.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…1078backed Yes | 37c | 64.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…3bfdbacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…7bd0backed Yes | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…4ed8backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 73c | 50.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…7fbabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b9c1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed No | 66c | 48.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed No | 77c | 48.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…87f0backed No | 71c | 46.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…85e6backed Yes | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…16f8backed No | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…7edabacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…f8dabacked Yes | 48c | 40.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.