Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35f2c0609e615ed847c0a4cfa6bf1fb33d24b655f14f5ebb9ccb555ed230b153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 15,729$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 73c | 906.05$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.94 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 11c | 629$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 40c | 508.72$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 24c | 399.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 41c | 397.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 23c | 385$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 60c | 373$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked No | 70c | 366$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 32c | 358.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 12c | 343.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 330.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked Yes | 29c | 282.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 7c | 253.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 70c | 243.59$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 76c | 243.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…5950backed No | 58c | 202.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 195$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 176.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 13c | 172.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 39c | 160.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…6f97backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 146$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 78c | 128.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 19c | 126$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…68aebacked Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 31c | 86.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 32c | 85.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…a58dbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…e1bcbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 26c | 62.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 33c | 50.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…b89dbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…3e42backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665a…dd29backed Yes | 35c | 42.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…20debacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 77c | 31.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…2821backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…9118backed No | 76c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…1030backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 35c | 28.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…ac60backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…93d8backed Yes | 40c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…7a92backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…3a1bbacked No | 72c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…8b66backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1122…2e16backed No | 76c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…682abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.