Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97de92aee4d4c1b4c6f88a9c906f4c945ef8516a9118f3d85862420ade6419dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,122,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,237,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,122,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 0c | 1,136,798$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846.34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…fc5cbacked Yes | 0c | 151,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 0c | 93,626$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.78 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 84,998$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…78c9backed Yes | 0c | 77,802$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 0c | 58,498$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…28aabacked Yes | 0c | 51,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 0c | 49,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…ababbacked Yes | 0c | 38,080$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…f18abacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 0c | 34,235$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…dc6abacked Yes | 0c | 29,964$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 15c | 28,848$4,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,365.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 4c | 27,803$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed Yes | 2c | 23,752$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…6a9fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,966$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…5bfdbacked Yes | 0c | 21,830$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…94bdbacked Yes | 0c | 21,783$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 6c | 21,381$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.94 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 1c | 21,284$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…6baabacked Yes | 0c | 21,182$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…9481backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…a031backed Yes | 0c | 19,501$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…85e6backed Yes | 1c | 17,648$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,080$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…a224backed Yes | 0c | 15,087$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b75…7bf3backed Yes | 0c | 14,960$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa82…15d5backed Yes | 0c | 14,356$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…592fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,513$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…f3f0backed Yes | 1c | 11,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 11,018$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.22 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…58e0backed Yes | 0c | 10,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…13c6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…4b4bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…4c58backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…a433backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 13c | 9,360$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,172.38 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 3c | 9,017$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…2646backed Yes | 0c | 8,688$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 36c | 8,193$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.42 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed No | 50c | 8,106$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,047.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…8feabacked Yes | 27c | 7,303$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 6c | 7,264$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked Yes | 60c | 7,242$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,374.54 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 7c | 7,062$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 24c | 6,669$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.03 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 38c | 6,598$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…49b0backed Yes | 11c | 5,814$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 0c | 5,263$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 74c | 5,179$3,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4716backed Yes | 41c | 5,126$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 2c | 5,060$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…929cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…f008backed Yes | 0c | 4,793$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 39c | 4,646$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.76 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 22c | 4,451$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.4 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 6c | 4,329$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…ceeebacked Yes | 0c | 3,818$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 40c | 3,799$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed No | 12c | 3,450$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,041.68 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 16c | 3,309$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.29 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,156$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.48 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed No | 79c | 3,086$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 1c | 3,045$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…d084backed Yes | 0c | 3,018$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,759$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.77 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…a1b2backed Yes | 24c | 2,679$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,562$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…5d97backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed Yes | 14c | 2,187$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 12c | 2,086$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.87 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 63c | 1,714$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.67 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…11dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,640$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…1254backed Yes | 23c | 1,514$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 29c | 1,401$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,371$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,353$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…335ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,353$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…1e8dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,210$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 54c | 1,194$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 64c | 1,192$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…ff63backed Yes | 3c | 1,045$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 37c | 1,039$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 29c | 1,019$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.14 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Yes | 78c | 980.52$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 61c | 905.53$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.52 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 4c | 885.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed No | 29c | 874.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Yes | 2c | 870.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 2c | 859$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 67c | 790$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.7 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…5d74backed No | 15c | 784.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +553.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.