Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e17b62a9d451b686e9cc750345f005557a7dfa85f4b51b12ebefbac7088b0da

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $499,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $355,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,303 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 488 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb277…9960backed Yes	0c	42,696$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	17,120$3,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,004.96	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	16,375$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.88	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	13,605$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.36	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	7c	11,916$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844.44	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfd…9a92backed Yes	34c	9,253$3,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,101.43	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	21c	8,391$1,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,734.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Yes	2c	5,688$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	36c	5,436$1,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,967.03	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	16c	5,291$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867.49	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	5,237$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.21	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	12c	4,140$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.54	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	4,118$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.76	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	15c	4,090$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.78	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	3,903$2,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,262.5	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	73c	3,663$2,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$982.95	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	71cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	16c	3,600$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.37	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	62c	2,950$1,824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,126	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	14c	2,616$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.16	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	6c	2,516$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.52	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	12c	2,500$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	2,300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed No	75c	2,230$1,665 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.04	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	72cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes	48c	2,071$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	20c	1,858$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.63	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	27c	1,791$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	15c	1,517$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.31	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	25c	1,490$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.07	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	13c	1,470$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	26c	1,449$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.49	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes	16c	1,393$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc971…d456backed Yes	3c	1,389$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No	65c	1,338$865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.9	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	35c	1,313$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.55	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,287$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…b2c0backed Yes	32c	1,265$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No	53c	1,256$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$593.97	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	25c	1,244$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.5	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	28c	1,219$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…7512backed No	80c	1,203$961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.84	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	24c	1,181$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	7c	1,143$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfa3…b298backed No	73c	1,135$829 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.64	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	10c	1,100$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.4	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4589…12adbacked Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	12cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	38c	1,062$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.1	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No	78c	1,052$823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.68	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	70cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	32c	1,035$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.88	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	25c	1,015$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.18	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	25c	1,009$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.14	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	15c	1,002$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	13c	1,001$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.13	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	27c	1,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4f…61ccbacked Yes	27c	1,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes	36c	999.99$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf42a…9f92backed Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	30c	999.63$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.41	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	52c	976.64$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.56	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Yes	20c	934.78$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.9	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8f…a1dcbacked Yes	25c	926.69$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.39	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa30…9971backed Yes	33c	925.93$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes	19c	925.26$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.97	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	22c	910.11$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.41	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes	29c	887.3$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.49	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	34c	880.3$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.08	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	32c	844.58$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.4	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	32c	820.18$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.5	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	15c	799.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed No	79c	779.65$613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.28	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes	33c	767.03$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44b…4048backed Yes	31c	728.87$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	40c	726.54$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.34	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	19c	721.44$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.41	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes	44c	702.9$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.73	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes	4c	694.39$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes	28c	681.79$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	659.39$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.06	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba8…500abacked Yes	13c	650$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.5	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	610$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	28c	600$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x679f…7976backed Yes	17c	594.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	33c	580$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.51	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	43c	561.03$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.28	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	44c	549.82$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.47	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No	80c	547.41$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.68	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	39c	539.19$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.66	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Yes	19c	530$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No	63c	526.95$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.35	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	38c	522.56$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.97	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	19c	519.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0a97…4866backed Yes	36c	503.99$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	26c	502$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.52	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90c…0d37backed No	61c	500$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.85	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes	15c	500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+195.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	68c	499.99$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes	21c	480.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event