Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc350d6b8ced56c47ae0b08344bdd8b4586355c16b63658fe852fdbebbb8397a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $630,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $337,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes | 0c | 78,842$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…9480backed Yes | 1c | 31,748$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.99 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,833$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 16,481$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…d618backed Yes | 1c | 16,259$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 15,320$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,557$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,490$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…533cbacked Yes | 2c | 13,623$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 0c | 9,570$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…8692backed Yes | 0c | 8,549$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb4…c292backed Yes | 3c | 7,235$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b0…1c31backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +309.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ac…78f3backed Yes | 1c | 6,321$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…b827backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,992$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…2ad0backed Yes | 1c | 3,836$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5225…ae99backed Yes | 1c | 3,208$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 1c | 3,080$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…d288backed Yes | 0c | 2,830$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 4c | 2,725$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 70 | 5.7%4 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,013$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 1c | 1,845$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,704$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7698…5136backed Yes | 1c | 1,692$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…687ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,664$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,660$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0f…e3e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…354ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…a5a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Yes | 3c | 931.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 2c | 930.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 11c | 877.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb3…8d72backed Yes | 3c | 756.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes | 2c | 422.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…8a06backed Yes | 10c | 405.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 4c | 296.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…210ebacked Yes | 9c | 292.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…742abacked Yes | 9c | 276.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…cf43backed Yes | 8c | 248.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…eeb5backed Yes | 8c | 182.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 9c | 167.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.