Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71bb6523ffbfbb73703a0fce944db0a21178e5662aec84cd0fa0ed10005e7523

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $496,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $289,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	143,124$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.19	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	16,390$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.73	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	10,949$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.39	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	7,434$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd018…60fcbacked Yes	2c	6,200$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…e502backed Yes	4c	5,462$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.67	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	4,547$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.69	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	4,522$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	1c	3,961$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	3,779$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,734$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	3,413$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,206$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.85	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	7c	3,008$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.67	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfd…9a92backed Yes	20c	2,447$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	2,437$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes	1c	2,162$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	15c	2,004$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	12c	2,000$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.06	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,796$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,788$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	10c	1,600$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,577$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	3c	1,430$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9be1…0ad2backed Yes	1c	1,417$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	1,294$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.75	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45f4…631dbacked Yes	1c	1,286$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	12c	1,181$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	15c	1,142$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.65	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	9c	1,110$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	13c	1,100$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	14c	1,048$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.2	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	18c	1,000$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.68	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	2c	993.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	975.18$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	972.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes	13c	965.49$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	4c	891.38$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	2c	857.62$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	2c	842.51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd590…a04ebacked Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	820$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes	11c	800$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	6c	733.98$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d46…b031backed Yes	12c	720$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.84	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes	15c	654.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	5c	650$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	3c	619.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes	14c	617.25$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes	3c	581.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes	18c	561.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	17c	500$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.8	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…500abacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	499.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5f…9f74backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	14c	414.71$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.06	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f32…9d71backed Yes	17c	407.05$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8450…0b7bbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	14c	399.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.3	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	10c	384.93$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.07	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f4…c9acbacked Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	5c	366.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	11c	354.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	350$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.6	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	15c	341.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f90…5b7ebacked Yes	14c	315.94$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb783…998dbacked Yes	4c	311.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	12c	300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	290$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c67…8860backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf615…6bf6backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f4backed Yes	16c	245.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes	9c	234.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7686backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf577…f6a3backed Yes	9c	215$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	7c	214.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	12c	212$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba9f…87acbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	199.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de6…76c4backed Yes	10c	194.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93f1…2b51backed Yes	16c	192.42$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.57	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes	16c	188.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8f…a1dcbacked Yes	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d2…1462backed Yes	17c	183.66$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.02	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	8c	170.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes	12c	170.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event