Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de329d30d5553e15e243bbd507a857b4422d2ef7cacbaccc0a09b4b7f4ad89e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $533,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $346,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,533 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	33,921$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.77	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	30,410$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.05	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Yes	1c	23,923$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.79	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	19,065$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.02	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	17,607$1,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,518.35	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,950$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	8,893$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.07	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	7,751$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.12	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes	7c	7,500$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.57	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	6,675$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.52	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	6,056$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.58	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	4,956$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.83	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	4,831$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.8	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	12c	4,226$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.53	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	4,062$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	21c	3,654$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.91	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	7c	3,523$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.65	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	18c	3,057$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.03	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	2,959$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfd…9a92backed Yes	22c	2,436$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.06	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	2,404$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	6c	2,342$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.54	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	16c	2,172$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.45	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	8c	2,061$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.43	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	17c	2,000$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.9	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	14c	2,000$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	15c	1,833$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.99	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	12c	1,600$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	12c	1,595$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	1,590$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.47	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	1,505$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.97	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	10c	1,504$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.99	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	6c	1,444$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.15	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes	8c	1,434$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.03	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	9c	1,410$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.85	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	12c	1,390$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	7c	1,353$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.89	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	14c	1,333$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.62	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8f…a1dcbacked Yes	21c	1,307$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	13c	1,250$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.52	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	1,207$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.34	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	17c	1,180$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	17c	1,161$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fc…a861backed Yes	17c	1,100$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	5c	1,008$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…e502backed Yes	30c	1,006$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	23c	1,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	4c	999.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	21c	962.99$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.23	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	74c	906.44$667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.03	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes	22c	902.14$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	13c	900$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes	15c	888$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.2	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes	21c	857.14$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	856.76$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.66	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdac5…0fedbacked Yes	9c	847.88$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.92	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd738…d07ebacked Yes	4c	800$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	21c	800$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	13c	771$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.94	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	8c	752.59$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	19c	752.49$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	16c	738.8$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	14c	725.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes	15c	675.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0bf…9401backed Yes	28c	671.11$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.91	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	27c	650$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.5	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	5c	648.37$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e94…ff8fbacked Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	8c	590$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94ad…8851backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	584.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	9c	580$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.35	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	6c	577.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	11c	576.31$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.02	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	14c	564.92$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.04	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	14c	557.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes	6c	543.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…0011backed Yes	10c	541.37$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.86	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	12c	537.32$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.02	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x232b…8bd9backed Yes	11c	516.67$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.33	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes	3c	505$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	18c	504.28$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.99	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes	22c	500.19$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.48	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+195.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes	7c	499.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	11c	475.65$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.54	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb961…b69ebacked Yes	21c	474.68$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.53	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes	22c	462.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	6c	459.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b5…4425backed Yes	10c	444.91$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.45	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f54…93d5backed Yes	12c	442$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.54	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x679f…7976backed Yes	23c	437.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	15c	428.65$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.13	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c6…90d0backed Yes	24c	421.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+67%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	20c	411.99$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.78	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	17c	411.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	13c	410.61$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.62	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event