Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044ecbfa2dceab8cdd5afbbf16b1a56a0a18a692b5662e9c0fba68dc96221783

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $467,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $332,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,719 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	25,128$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.61	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	15,218$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	1c	14,000$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	13,489$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.74	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf5…9385backed Yes	1c	13,235$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	11,372$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb846…e02bbacked Yes	3c	6,257$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	62c	6,014$3,751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,262.3	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	5,846$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.17	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	15c	4,588$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.17	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	11c	4,494$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.29	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	4c	4,398$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.48	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfd…9a92backed Yes	9c	4,121$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.58	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	13c	3,557$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.28	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	7c	3,000$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	29c	2,800$811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.15	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	3c	2,698$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.43	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes	4c	2,685$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Yes	8c	2,568$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	9c	2,064$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No	56c	2,000$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$874	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	16c	1,941$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.44	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,921$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.31	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	12c	1,662$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	45c	1,635$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	1,596$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.87	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	1,580$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.55	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes	16c	1,516$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	35c	1,499$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	19c	1,411$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	4c	1,396$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	35c	1,312$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.13	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d0…881ebacked No	76c	1,283$975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.47	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	75c	1,277$955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.34	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x675a…0551backed No	66c	1,265$835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.25	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	29c	1,209$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.14	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	28c	1,200$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.68	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Yes	48c	1,129$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37f4…8697backed Yes	1c	1,050$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,031$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes	3c	1,008$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.94	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	11c	1,001$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4f…61ccbacked Yes	31c	1,000$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.51	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	33c	999.99$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	999.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes	11c	944.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	5c	943.22$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.39	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x679f…7976backed Yes	12c	844.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90c…0d37backed No	62c	842.76$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.22	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Yes	22c	815.67$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	24c	753.55$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.06	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x803d…a7f8backed Yes	5c	752.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Yes	14c	716.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	13c	715.81$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.75	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa114…fdadbacked Yes	14c	698.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b7…c8a8backed Yes	40c	689.05$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.96	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	29c	680.26$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.06	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	18c	650.05$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.27	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	638.46$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.32	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	13c	627.61$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	11c	617.19$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.94	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f44…179cbacked Yes	3c	603.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	5c	601.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes	16c	600.6$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	29c	580.15$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.19	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	573.6$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes	32c	564.53$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72b…ec6fbacked Yes	41c	560.09$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…ae93backed Yes	18c	548.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+206%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	79c	503.48$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.9	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	39c	499.99$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.66	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d4…621abacked Yes	3c	499.4$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+53.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked Yes	40c	494.71$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	22c	491.76$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.5	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	481.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	22c	458.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes	6c	450$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb961…b69ebacked Yes	13c	450$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.9	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	25c	446.26$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…0dd6backed Yes	32c	414.03$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	15c	410.68$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.64	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	37c	400.43$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.37	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	37c	386.35$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.86	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d0b3backed Yes	33c	384.73$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	26c	380$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.21	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	11c	374.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.93	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…b6aabacked Yes	8c	372.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	26c	353.25$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	46c	350.02$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.05	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	9c	348.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.13	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad58…cadabacked Yes	6c	347.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes	12c	340.44$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes	15c	340$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes	15c	339.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb4…c292backed Yes	39c	326.19$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	11c	313.6$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event