Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665198d614de68b455811145d276528c33ddcd82b9012a27c75890945e6b131a

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $312,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $194,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	120,118$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.68	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,587$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.27	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	5,572$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.08	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	4,860$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.51	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	3,255$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.21	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,715$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	2,089$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	5c	2,034$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	7c	2,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.84	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes	12c	1,739$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.94	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes	1c	1,717$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	7c	1,611$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	1c	1,600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	5c	1,600$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.02	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	10c	1,255$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	4c	920$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Yes	7c	599.61$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d60…eb2cbacked Yes	5c	596.12$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	7c	430.92$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.59	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	375.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes	8c	337.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa09…1fbebacked Yes	4c	337.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d46…b031backed Yes	10c	325$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…4547backed Yes	4c	306.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	6c	299.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed Yes	10c	290.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	22cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	9c	266.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.12	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	6c	237.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	9c	215$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	6c	200.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	199.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	6c	199.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	10c	196.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes	10c	196.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event