Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7dee4aa87ad6a0f6746aea4aa19920414cb2a594a9e5bc53ee1b582c00a4bf

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $522,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $323,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	123,918$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.78	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	24,459$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	24,377$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.15	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	16,263$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.99	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	12,406$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.41	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	10,967$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.32	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,446$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.78	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5be…b7cebacked Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	0c	7,611$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e74…7800backed Yes	1c	5,912$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	5,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3a…5c05backed Yes	0c	5,461$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3409…2d41backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	0c	5,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	3,296$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.14	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	3c	3,196$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.43	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	6c	3,063$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.01	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	3,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,819$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	7c	2,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.61	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	13c	1,864$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.82	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	7c	1,600$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	10c	1,567$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	3c	1,250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	1,240$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	1c	1,181$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68b8…5401backed Yes	1c	1,130$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes	11c	1,104$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	1,100$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.45	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	7c	950$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	8c	936.81$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa30…9971backed Yes	9c	711.11$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes	14c	700.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes	3c	636.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	3c	553.17$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d46…b031backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaf…e2e3backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	9c	399.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	22cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	9c	209.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e71…c117backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	199.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	10c	186.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f3…ad37backed Yes	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	12c	178$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	8c	171.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…cadabacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	166$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c9…89babacked Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	10c	145.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	12c	129.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+108.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5096…c5b1backed Yes	10c	115$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…ede8backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f90…5b7ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9be3…724dbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	12c	90$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc419…e588backed Yes	12c	85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event