Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25c1d861a968b86dc05725ec09084652a8dbcd7410f87a835ded55974db6f1e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $365,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $210,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	46,280$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.09	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	28,329$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.22	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	10,868$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.46	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c2…381bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes	1c	9,788$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.67	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	3c	9,166$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.16	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	8c	8,153$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.63	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	2c	6,673$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.73	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked No	76c	5,262$3,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,262.83	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	4,100$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	3,582$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	3,374$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…8692backed Yes	1c	3,164$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	2,439$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.77	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7698…5136backed Yes	1c	2,181$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	12c	2,173$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.96	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda10…eeccbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	6c	1,857$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	22c	1,600$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.72	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes	6c	1,575$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	1,573$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes	3c	1,448$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	1,420$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa859…ba1ebacked Yes	18c	1,370$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	17c	1,338$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Yes	7c	1,337$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ea…18b3backed Yes	8c	1,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	2c	1,312$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b7…c8a8backed Yes	18c	1,307$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.19	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	4c	1,297$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.81	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc79a…e0a4backed Yes	16c	1,226$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	6c	1,210$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.26	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	5c	1,176$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.98	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	2c	1,165$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	1,151$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.58	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes	10c	1,132$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.44	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	1c	1,131$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	1,100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x679f…7976backed Yes	9c	1,059$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	7c	1,055$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.02	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0017…286abacked Yes	2c	1,053$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72b…ec6fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc55…6f77backed Yes	2c	990$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	961.32$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.26	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	5c	802.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked Yes	16c	693.49$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0f…e3e2backed Yes	15c	680.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7e…d934backed Yes	3c	679.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…a292backed Yes	9c	666.33$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.32	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	661.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	652.62$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90c…0d37backed Yes	4c	550$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	4c	545.42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes	19c	519.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	4c	519.09$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	10c	478.65$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.67	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	8c	473.88$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.44	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	461.57$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.57	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes	4c	458.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Yes	18c	454.88$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	5c	430.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4b…b265backed Yes	17c	422.31$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	3c	421.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	410.01$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.06	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	3c	391.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb3…8d72backed Yes	14c	356.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d0b3backed Yes	15c	354.29$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5225…ae99backed Yes	12c	334.34$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4811…bc70backed Yes	3c	325.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	13c	300$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb961…b69ebacked Yes	10c	300$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	4c	299.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d1…210ebacked Yes	15c	299.6$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes	16c	297.06$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.53	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	20c	295.4$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aac…7b50backed Yes	10c	292.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…522dbacked Yes	17c	292.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cc…5307backed Yes	18c	290$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	6c	289.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	5c	285.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	284.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	9c	242.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdac5…0fedbacked Yes	13c	222.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed Yes	14c	215$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	22cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes	13c	210.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6c…f47fbacked Yes	15c	200.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfba8…500abacked Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	6c	199.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58fa…54e7backed Yes	18c	190.94$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+106.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f81…5394backed Yes	17c	176$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2f…04ccbacked Yes	18c	168.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f54…93d5backed Yes	11c	166$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes	16c	157.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…ad0fbacked Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	13c	151.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59ef…5191backed Yes	13c	151.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event