Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not strike Yemen by 15 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc908d39325c1b7882de6d84c719113ff8937da8fad1cdea05d7ac53de92a152a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 18c | 1,380$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 19c | 1,303$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed No | 20c | 984.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed No | 7c | 946.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 4c | 889.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 24c | 367.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 17c | 329$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 324.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 17c | 306.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…d9fabacked No | 24c | 164.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 146.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 143.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 18c | 141.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 17c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not strike Yemen by 15 ET?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 14 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 15 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on or before September 11 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.