TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,777 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes6c1,723$98 inLost-$98.127733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No80c1,580$1,258 inWon+$321.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1614…ec02backed Yes4c1,419$56 inLost-$56100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes28c962.69$274 inLost-$274.254045%18 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes38c574$216 inLost-$215.5712927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c547.92$67 inLost-$66.799138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes6c453$27 inLost-$27.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes7c431.41$30 inLost-$30.192321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes12c414.59$49 inLost-$49.2812937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes19c368.43$71 inLost-$70.510812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c313.47$19 inLost-$18.775327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa9c…3421backed No77c300$231 inWon+$69.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes6c287.69$18 inLost-$17.720026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed No67c239.8$161 inWon+$78.751850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed No75c222.91$167 inWon+$55.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost-$11.85752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No63c174.42$110 inWon+$64.752941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes9c150$14 inLost-$148733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No60c140$83 inWon+$56.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc047…fecbbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes41c76.11$31 inLost-$31.115461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No48c74.33$36 inWon+$38.55438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked No55c35.85$20 inWon+$16.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c22.7$16 inWon+$6.222138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.