Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33468ef7d3ca12293c0dd23c7271faeafa9d695ccf2ec841024f0a195fa9f9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 3,619$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.57 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 17c | 2,141$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 1,124$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 965.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 20c | 933.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked Yes | 2c | 676.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 2c | 658.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed No | 80c | 630$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 17c | 451$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Yes | 17c | 400.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 6c | 370$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 4c | 251.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 19c | 204.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 203.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…d1c1backed Yes | 18c | 192.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 173.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 140.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8e…81a5backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 122.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 75c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d0…15a3backed Yes | 20c | 101.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…a609backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 20c | 75.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.