Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ec4d0c92654ccfed5b161c3ca1b4e3664608581b9d21d80939ce792a3a3b94f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,733,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,773,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,733,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 594 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 26c | 1,052,109$270,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782,058.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed No | 0c | 378,205$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed Yes | 17c | 130,982$22,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,343.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +271.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…d1cabacked No | 0c | 117,311$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 30c | 114,961$34,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,569.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 71c | 82,871$58,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,669.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 69c | 82,222$56,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,492.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 71c | 67,365$48,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,128.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 76c | 63,979$48,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,346.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 13c | 57,286$7,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,226.7 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 76c | 54,300$41,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,053.2 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed No | 75c | 50,000$37,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,500 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 71c | 48,688$34,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,567.29 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 75c | 46,662$34,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,879.92 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 73c | 42,349$30,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,925.98 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 70c | 39,623$27,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,542.73 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 75c | 37,003$27,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,903.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 32c | 35,573$11,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,334.59 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 76c | 31,775$24,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,229.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 78c | 31,582$24,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,568.92 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked No | 73c | 30,833$22,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,598.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 20c | 30,343$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,343.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +399.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 73c | 29,471$21,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,402.19 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…e29cbacked No | 78c | 25,000$19,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,537.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 26c | 23,860$6,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,553.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 36c | 23,666$8,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,213.64 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 12c | 22,759$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…ac1abacked Yes | 37c | 21,844$7,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,847.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 61c | 21,815$13,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,291.94 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 17c | 21,680$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,915.35 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 75c | 20,000$15,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,099.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…4961backed Yes | 29c | 16,756$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,865.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 16,200$11,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,658 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…6a17backed No | 0c | 16,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 3c | 15,968$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.44 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 79c | 15,931$12,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,516.61 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 79c | 15,589$12,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,327.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…674fbacked No | 74c | 15,352$11,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,434.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…ce41backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 2c | 14,766$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.77 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…0d16backed Yes | 13c | 14,369$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,482.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,136.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed No | 80c | 14,140$11,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,260.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked No | 80c | 13,406$10,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,680.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 16c | 13,160$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,114.51 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 21c | 12,807$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,161.97 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 77c | 12,500$9,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,575 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked No | 76c | 12,408$9,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,404.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 14c | 12,225$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 12,188$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,710.42 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 25c | 12,012$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,011.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +522.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 15c | 11,724$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,009.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 79c | 11,602$9,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,218.08 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes | 27c | 11,599$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,418.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +599%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…428cbacked No | 1c | 11,501$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 10,920$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…31b8backed No | 74c | 10,189$7,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,522.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 64c | 10,183$6,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,551.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,171$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,052.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 9c | 10,004$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,103.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 76c | 9,987$7,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,565 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8754…7641backed No | 0c | 9,119$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…7b9cbacked Yes | 22c | 9,048$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…649bbacked No | 72c | 8,785$6,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,302.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 77c | 8,545$6,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,622.61 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 73c | 8,453$6,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,170.25 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 66c | 8,003$5,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,281.76 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 74c | 8,000$5,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,880.47 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 70c | 7,850$5,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,514.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…f444backed Yes | 11c | 7,523$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,672.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +821.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 7,052$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,139.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…05ebbacked No | 76c | 6,890$5,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,269.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 77c | 6,647$5,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,148.87 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 77c | 6,500$5,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 26c | 6,342$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,708.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 71c | 6,237$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 24c | 6,164$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,670.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…f07bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,100$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,540 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +212.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…2fa4backed No | 73c | 6,088$4,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,456.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 27c | 5,700$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,181 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 78c | 5,551$4,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,353.48 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 1c | 5,444$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…51a4backed No | 80c | 5,223$4,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 5,101$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,905.97 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 5,058$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.33 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…e12abacked Yes | 28c | 5,043$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,615.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 72c | 5,009$3,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.94 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 10c | 4,846$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.74 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…0fd0backed Yes | 17c | 4,806$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…f9edbacked Yes | 11c | 4,608$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,087.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +521%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,045.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +673.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed No | 70c | 4,400$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 23c | 4,278$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 10c | 4,265$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.93 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 23c | 4,250$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…72edbacked No | 73c | 4,110$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 19c | 4,050$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…4946backed No | 73c | 4,045$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.