TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$472,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$493,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe327…1fffbacked No56c39,834$22,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,307.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5783…7e69backed Yes44c39,834$17,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,307.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b4…85f2backed No56c31,809$17,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,813.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…5762backed Yes44c31,809$13,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,813.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…ceaabacked No54c29,065$15,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,695.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465f…56b5backed Yes46c29,065$13,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,695.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked No8c6,967$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.163823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,808$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.851,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No23c3,808$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.033221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No1c3,751$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Yes65c3,615$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed No18c3,000$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+47.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No17c2,593$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.611717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410c…b808backed No2c2,501$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No19c2,390$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.232060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+103.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No22c2,177$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.0111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No27c2,120$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.613810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes63c1,988$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No3c1,765$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.254226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes77c1,401$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c4…e06fbacked Yes71c1,341$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes46c1,308$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9d…adb2backed No8c1,217$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5651…66a6backed Yes76c1,209$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked No8c1,107$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.341926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes75c1,023$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f50…ec5dbacked Yes47c930.12$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ee…cf38backed Yes75c929.48$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes67c925.83$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.474146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b0b…73cabacked Yes73c763.26$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe448…f5cbbacked No25c738.72$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4d…7001backed Yes46c737.28$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.28875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+148.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes76c724.94$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.831030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-58.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No57c700$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes64c647.87$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No29c643.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes80c627.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.194228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa403…9cabbacked No4c600.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed No31c538.75$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.67128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-88.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58a5…a30dbacked Yes79c526.13$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c501.12$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c499.62$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc9…0101backed Yes67c497.61$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No61c495.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a8…e606backed Yes65c463.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe2…074fbacked Yes56c442.89$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes68c431.28$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+60.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes52c400$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No44c394.53$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.627024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes39c391.08$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.751520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7763…815ebacked Yes71c366.23$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes48c360$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b10…168fbacked No4c342$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2db…6d2dbacked Yes76c328.8$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…1319backed No4c316$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes71c299.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed Yes72c286.4$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.341163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d15…1347backed Yes74c276.55$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No41c275.9$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2318544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes60c270$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cc6…b4abbacked No11c266.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes74c265.42$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes77c259.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.681580%12 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3560…8494backed Yes50c243$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…674ebacked Yes61c231.82$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3324…88e3backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790c…033cbacked Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+77.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x728a…3651backed Yes68c220.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No44c202.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.913060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed Yes59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes77c193.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.571553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No15c182.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.359435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes56c179.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes35c172.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a96…7f23backed Yes61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No42c160$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.22462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No56c159.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.422259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ef…57f5backed Yes36c157$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+205.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea4c…3e0dbacked Yes71c155.11$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x918a…aa22backed Yes65c154.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.811442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Yes59c152.9$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c152.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…e27ebacked Yes65c151.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a2…e144backed Yes49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac25…14d4backed Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes77c148.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a7…7a2fbacked Yes78c148.26$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x619a…02b6backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb2…7193backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4439…9c3cbacked No14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1af…5611backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189d…5f66backed Yes72c138.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da2…f179backed Yes65c136.24$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.