AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d54219ef43b4a2ba1904ba6155786263d1e3005dcd6bac978d28e3ada2aa489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $472,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $493,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe327…1fffbacked No | 56c | 39,834$22,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,307.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5783…7e69backed Yes | 44c | 39,834$17,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,307.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b4…85f2backed No | 56c | 31,809$17,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,813.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…5762backed Yes | 44c | 31,809$13,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,813.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…ceaabacked No | 54c | 29,065$15,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,695.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…56b5backed Yes | 46c | 29,065$13,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,695.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 8c | 6,967$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,808$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 23c | 3,808$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 3,751$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 65c | 3,615$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed No | 18c | 3,000$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 17c | 2,593$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed No | 2c | 2,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 19c | 2,390$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 22c | 2,177$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.01 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 27c | 2,120$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.61 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes | 63c | 1,988$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 3c | 1,765$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,401$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…e06fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,341$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 46c | 1,308$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…adb2backed No | 8c | 1,217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 76c | 1,209$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked No | 8c | 1,107$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 75c | 1,023$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f50…ec5dbacked Yes | 47c | 930.12$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed Yes | 75c | 929.48$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 67c | 925.83$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.47 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0b…73cabacked Yes | 73c | 763.26$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked No | 25c | 738.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…7001backed Yes | 46c | 737.28$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 76c | 724.94$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 64c | 647.87$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 643.19$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 80c | 627.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked No | 4c | 600.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 31c | 538.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…a30dbacked Yes | 79c | 526.13$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 501.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 499.62$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed Yes | 67c | 497.61$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 61c | 495.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…e606backed Yes | 65c | 463.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…074fbacked Yes | 56c | 442.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes | 68c | 431.28$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 44c | 394.53$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 39c | 391.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…815ebacked Yes | 71c | 366.23$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 48c | 360$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…168fbacked No | 4c | 342$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…6d2dbacked Yes | 76c | 328.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…1319backed No | 4c | 316$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 71c | 299.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Yes | 72c | 286.4$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…1347backed Yes | 74c | 276.55$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 41c | 275.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc6…b4abbacked No | 11c | 266.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…8dc6backed Yes | 74c | 265.42$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 77c | 259.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…8494backed Yes | 50c | 243$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…674ebacked Yes | 61c | 231.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3324…88e3backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…3651backed Yes | 68c | 220.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 44c | 202.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes | 77c | 193.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 182.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 56c | 179.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 35c | 172.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d54abacked Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…7f23backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 56c | 159.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…57f5backed Yes | 36c | 157$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…3e0dbacked Yes | 71c | 155.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 65c | 154.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 59c | 152.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 152.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…e27ebacked Yes | 65c | 151.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…14d4backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 77c | 148.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a7…7a2fbacked Yes | 78c | 148.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…02b6backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…7193backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked No | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…5f66backed Yes | 72c | 138.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da2…f179backed Yes | 65c | 136.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.