AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf1c0ea53868e1cb5926525bd94bc172ddccb174e6995e7ae89f0866dd378b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $649,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $603,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2091…08aabacked Yes | 38c | 35,079$13,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,330.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…7159backed No | 62c | 35,079$21,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,330.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4511…3efebacked No | 51c | 35,034$17,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,166.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5783…7e69backed Yes | 49c | 35,034$17,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,166.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…9cd5backed No | 52c | 34,911$18,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,757.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04be…a60bbacked Yes | 48c | 34,911$16,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,757.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…f22cbacked No | 58c | 32,106$18,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,484.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd7…bd45backed Yes | 42c | 32,106$13,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,484.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…6a94backed Yes | 48c | 25,107$12,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,051.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…42f2backed No | 52c | 25,107$13,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,051.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 4c | 20,295$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…7845backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…778ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…4d28backed Yes | 0c | 12,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…4670backed Yes | 0c | 11,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 52c | 11,765$6,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,140.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 15c | 10,324$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.82 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,993$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,086$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 50c | 4,783$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,982$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.6 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 32c | 2,309$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,972$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 2c | 1,929$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 32c | 1,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,429$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…9694backed Yes | 8c | 1,340$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 40c | 1,316$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed Yes | 31c | 1,047$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 39c | 1,012$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 999.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…f8e9backed Yes | 61c | 940.7$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 23c | 914.89$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 14c | 899.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0090…1cc8backed Yes | 3c | 846$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…6b71backed Yes | 49c | 839.99$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed Yes | 7c | 799.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…d963backed Yes | 3c | 754$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 719.91$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 675.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…b7e7backed Yes | 3c | 672$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…83afbacked Yes | 2c | 670$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…6131backed Yes | 3c | 665$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 10c | 644.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 590.65$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 25c | 588.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…57f5backed Yes | 23c | 576.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…1fbabacked Yes | 51c | 571.35$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…1af8backed No | 51c | 565.46$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…8dd3backed Yes | 2c | 557$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 554.8$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b32…5dbbbacked Yes | 3c | 545$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…bd9bbacked Yes | 2c | 526.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…76e6backed Yes | 2c | 523$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…3c4dbacked Yes | 2c | 510$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…5eccbacked Yes | 2c | 490$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4431…d959backed Yes | 5c | 489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…9fb8backed Yes | 2c | 437$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…b671backed Yes | 27c | 364.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 29c | 341.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 49c | 337.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…e4c6backed Yes | 28c | 333.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…26f9backed Yes | 3c | 325.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…3e84backed Yes | 62c | 323.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 42c | 321.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked Yes | 37c | 265$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 31c | 262$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…dd21backed Yes | 60c | 232.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…ab49backed Yes | 58c | 212.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cc…ec28backed Yes | 57c | 211.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…bc06backed Yes | 24c | 210.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 24c | 202.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 17c | 200.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 43c | 200.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083a…c64dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8784backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…6ec0backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 57c | 184$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 56c | 179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…4adcbacked No | 64c | 152.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 40c | 145.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…9591backed Yes | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 130.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 53c | 128.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…ab31backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 122.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 17c | 120.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 11c | 119.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 119.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.