Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0141bc972b2f4a4591e471742426c99da055fa513f41de9dfdc449fdfc60747f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 22,313$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.95 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 75c | 11,653$8,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.68 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…7a23backed Yes | 13c | 6,900$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 6,753$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 11c | 6,068$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.07 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f26cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,529$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…36eebacked Yes | 2c | 5,259$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…5e47backed Yes | 65c | 4,625$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 7c | 4,529$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 70c | 4,120$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.27 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 57c | 3,874$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.77 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked Yes | 27c | 3,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 14c | 3,263$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…30b6backed Yes | 12c | 2,967$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,903$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 2,608$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.78 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aec…cac7backed Yes | 40c | 2,485$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 17c | 2,476$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 69c | 2,424$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.87 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…b1d3backed Yes | 4c | 2,338$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Yes | 5c | 2,306$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 2,290$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…4961backed Yes | 24c | 2,272$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a7…e696backed Yes | 13c | 2,265$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 9c | 2,184$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 10c | 2,006$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…9b88backed Yes | 13c | 1,962$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 9c | 1,958$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 72c | 1,855$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,831$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…c0eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,790$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed Yes | 21c | 1,774$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 60c | 1,737$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed Yes | 39c | 1,636$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 55c | 1,616$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.1 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…9c75backed Yes | 16c | 1,586$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,543$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 74c | 1,542$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,445$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,426$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,418$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 77c | 1,372$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.47 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…1aadbacked Yes | 4c | 1,357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 11c | 1,355$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…5be1backed Yes | 10c | 1,298$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,277$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 67c | 1,217$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…e055backed Yes | 13c | 1,207$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,196$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 59c | 1,176$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…7b84backed Yes | 45c | 1,117$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…fef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,095$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,019$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fda…5e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 987$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…5dc3backed Yes | 23c | 972.26$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +440.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 22c | 945.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 38c | 938.84$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 17c | 920.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…6630backed No | 80c | 909.39$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…1ff7backed Yes | 25c | 871.39$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…8067backed Yes | 2c | 842.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 8c | 839.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 63c | 789.68$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…0902backed Yes | 16c | 777$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…ca90backed Yes | 13c | 740.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 22c | 716.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 10c | 708.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1a…802ebacked Yes | 49c | 669.5$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b18fbacked Yes | 18c | 664.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 30cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 4c | 658.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 657.07$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.96 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 18c | 616.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.73 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 3c | 601.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…8448backed Yes | 23c | 594.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…d622backed No | 80c | 591.46$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3616…850ebacked Yes | 2c | 586.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 582.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…c132backed Yes | 18c | 571.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 75c | 569.24$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 62c | 550.14$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…1f62backed Yes | 9c | 542.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…379cbacked Yes | 19c | 536.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 4c | 531.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…4ee4backed Yes | 9c | 526.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba3…22fabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…1eb7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…499dbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…3428backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…8960backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…c525backed Yes | 20c | 497.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.