TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes33c6,141$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.615240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes13c5,227$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.7441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes23c4,616$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes36c4,535$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.818433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No71c4,530$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.6710055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes13c3,869$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4514230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c3,569$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.0999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,833$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.993989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes14c2,737$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.073537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8453…778dbacked Yes68c2,720$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes11c2,353$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4118746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No44c2,113$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.9814742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c1,505$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No56c1,496$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.765168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes9c1,373$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.462810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,171$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No58c1,138$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.045451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No35c1,107$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.323043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes37c1,045$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.362941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes31c1,018$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.494837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6003923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed No31c999.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes35c999.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.992245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes38c864.55$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.625135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x530c…44bebacked Yes44c860$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4d…44cabacked No56c860$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes12c838.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No62c827.69$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.093154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No32c753.52$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.3910834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes68c751.28$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.3825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f47…1bd4backed No61c685$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No60c677.29$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.623351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a97…24dabacked No66c674.42$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No51c652.94$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes34c642.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.031735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33613943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes10c600$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No69c598.53$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.845250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed No71c596.1$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.872850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd728…5d3bbacked No68c587.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No60c557.66$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.0610630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes41c555$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes12c534.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.754045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c529.18$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.361,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed No47c517.17$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick32cpaid+318.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f72…669bbacked No44c509.37$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes14c501.56$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.453438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe241…ba7abacked No63c420.66$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No57c405.68$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.7611428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2569…074dbacked No40c380$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1734…4ac4backed Yes60c380$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No54c367.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.084332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x137a…6b3fbacked No53c364.88$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+77.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f9…5b74backed No45c354.76$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135b…24f8backed No60c350.84$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.21850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.987167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes48c319.06$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.172025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb740…442ebacked No32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed No64c311.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.852356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No33c300$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.57338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes40c298$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.218033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No45c288.05$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No41c245.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.445343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes69c244.51$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No42c214.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…7e15backed No59c206.6$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+98.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No50c205$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.087672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No49c202.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9115243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No45c200$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11120446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked No51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes66c199.91$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No44c192.02$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5313673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes62c191.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.211050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes10c191$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.014358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes17c185.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.392835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b7b…78a1backed No59c170.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.72650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x404e…a0d3backed No51c169.9$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.781376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xeca5…6785backed Yes10c154.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c143.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No61c143$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7715238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes41c142.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0822347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes33c141.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4316544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x071c…489dbacked No67c136.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No71c136.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.235358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes63c130$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.28253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes15c127.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes42c124$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0814135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No33c120$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.42853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+46.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed No58c117.68$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.433844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b8…32e3backed Yes41c116.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No70c116.73$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32a3…06a2backed No68c110.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd5…f4f1backed No69c101.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1d…edf7backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.