Us Politics · resolved market
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x001dd4fa85859071f1a8006450edd47f834452faf0493831291955d5f45eefca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 33c | 6,141$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.61 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,227$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.74 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 23c | 4,616$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 36c | 4,535$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.81 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 4,530$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.67 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 3,869$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.45 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 3,569$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.09 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,833$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,737$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.07 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked Yes | 68c | 2,720$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,353$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 44c | 2,113$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.98 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,505$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 56c | 1,496$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.76 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 1,373$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 58c | 1,138$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.04 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 35c | 1,107$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 37c | 1,045$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,018$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.49 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed No | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 38c | 864.55$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…44bebacked Yes | 44c | 860$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…44cabacked No | 56c | 860$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 12c | 838.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 62c | 827.69$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.09 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 32c | 753.52$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.39 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 68c | 751.28$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed No | 61c | 685$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 60c | 677.29$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…24dabacked No | 66c | 674.42$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 51c | 652.94$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 34c | 642.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 10c | 600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 69c | 598.53$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 71c | 596.1$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…5d3bbacked No | 68c | 587.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 60c | 557.66$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.06 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 41c | 555$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 12c | 534.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 529.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed No | 47c | 517.17$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 32cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…669bbacked No | 44c | 509.37$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 14c | 501.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked No | 63c | 420.66$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 57c | 405.68$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…074dbacked No | 40c | 380$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…4ac4backed Yes | 60c | 380$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 54c | 367.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…6b3fbacked No | 53c | 364.88$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…5b74backed No | 45c | 354.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed No | 60c | 350.84$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 48c | 319.06$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…442ebacked No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 64c | 311.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a350backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 33c | 300$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 40c | 298$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 45c | 288.05$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 245.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…704cbacked Yes | 69c | 244.51$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 42c | 214.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 59c | 206.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 49c | 202.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 66c | 199.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 44c | 192.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 62c | 191.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 10c | 191$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 185.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…78a1backed No | 59c | 170.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 51c | 169.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 10c | 154.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 143.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 61c | 143$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 41c | 142.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 33c | 141.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…489dbacked No | 67c | 136.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 71c | 136.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 127.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 42c | 124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 58c | 117.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed Yes | 41c | 116.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 70c | 116.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…06a2backed No | 68c | 110.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 69c | 101.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…edf7backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.