World Politics · resolved market
Lee Sang-min in jail by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fc09cd7f882b8871f826c525967c516e9837e0085d0f4f8c8d7a9976d22818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 37c | 10,384$3,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.25 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed No | 39c | 8,723$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 49c | 5,123$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.18 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 47c | 4,791$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.07 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 38c | 3,531$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked No | 58c | 3,250$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 33c | 2,876$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.14 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 70c | 2,677$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5dedbacked No | 19c | 2,669$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 41c | 2,653$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.22 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 72c | 2,578$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked No | 14c | 2,444$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 24c | 2,418$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.97 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 70c | 2,360$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.32 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 6c | 2,359$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed No | 52c | 2,300$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 47c | 2,129$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.1 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…3a47backed No | 59c | 2,120$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…3fbcbacked No | 14c | 2,030$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…7cd5backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 31c | 1,968$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 1,770$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…6440backed Yes | 29c | 1,634$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,546$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,517$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 60c | 1,352$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 38c | 1,309$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…857cbacked No | 46c | 1,160$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…3e4ebacked No | 20c | 1,074$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,050$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 42c | 989.22$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.89 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 29c | 854$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.34 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 800$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 13c | 800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 74c | 764.36$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 748.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 55c | 588.33$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked No | 8c | 552.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…da2abacked Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 73c | 439.99$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.19 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…cfeebacked Yes | 35c | 429$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…ec98backed No | 17c | 397.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 396.27$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 360$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes | 35c | 347$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 71c | 321$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 39c | 320$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked No | 64c | 287.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 249.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed No | 46c | 219.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…09ffbacked No | 29c | 198.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed No | 10c | 159.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed No | 17c | 156$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 36c | 151.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…6ac3backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…6524backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 147.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…f83abacked No | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 129.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…58bcbacked No | 16c | 128.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d4…a292backed No | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 110.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…3690backed No | 21c | 105.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…2a90backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 99.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…2f46backed No | 57c | 98.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 29c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8f…717ebacked No | 71c | 60.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 42c | 58.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…c1bcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…a49cbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +456.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 41.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…cd88backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed No | 66c | 33.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…01d3backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.