TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda47…f40abacked Yes32c27,332$8,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,629.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6485…be05backed Yes16c26,011$4,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No64c24,366$15,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,835.753534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes29c22,414$6,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,395.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+83.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No60c15,645$9,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,214.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9711…c35ebacked Yes8c10,348$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No67c9,600$6,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,168366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed Yes50c8,325$4,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,129.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x176a…a140backed Yes4c7,101$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes44c6,406$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes0c5,105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.762814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No68c4,705$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.961275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes26c4,235$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.011637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f77…fdb8backed Yes1c3,834$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No69c3,820$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.01540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No46c3,328$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked No50c3,270$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No70c2,857$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.91442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No78c2,690$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.337723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Yes31c2,503$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed No73c2,309$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes7c2,260$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No69c2,222$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed Yes20c2,003$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes66c1,722$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6955…b3b3backed Yes4c1,662$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No52c1,566$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.851414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked No65c1,565$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes61c1,124$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbac…b9bebacked Yes36c1,070$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b2…da04backed Yes8c1,023$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes16c1,022$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.67825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No69c1,010$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.21650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes32c1,000$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.552544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5df…7306backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc559…ac69backed Yes66c977.27$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55bc…5b19backed Yes35c877.74$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…6564backed Yes42c751.86$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid+39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes34c748$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No77c726.68$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.362161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a3…a5bcbacked Yes5c719.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked No78c711$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aeb…5671backed Yes29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No59c698.1$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.56850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes51c650$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes32c622.56$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.413026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes9c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes39c544.39$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No65c540.5$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…18e0backed Yes4c517.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c503.15$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…6020backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed No62c464$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.181040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13af…d1cabacked Yes4c463.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No67c462.49$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x766e…699fbacked Yes75c399.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No75c387$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.661060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…3ec2backed Yes16c329.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1d…0b92backed Yes15c325.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No74c325.07$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes32c325$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd7…96d3backed No63c303.7$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes51c295$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No61c265$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103219.5%2 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-85.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes39c259.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes16c256$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…0fa3backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1017…0c39backed Yes21c217.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.16520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed Yes18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2af9…2b9dbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Yes45c193.5$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…1792backed Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a864backed No80c160$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc9…ad2cbacked Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ee…cf38backed No75c133.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…ec6cbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4d…ae69backed Yes35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No63c110.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes23c104.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa29…fb21backed No71c101.81$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes30c101$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56139.3%24 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e54…5f61backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11f…ec34backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8a…a3edbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d30…cd30backed Yes37c93.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x135b…24f8backed Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9522640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x725b…576dbacked Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes31c63.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.