Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01daed5c4838dd1df5f61a3e9f9b52f0558dbf988c509d56d6050dfc1f23b1f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 4c | 44,544$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 36,565$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 12,964$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 8,200$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 13c | 4,542$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 12c | 4,289$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 15c | 3,590$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 3,328$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.52 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,056$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.56 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 13c | 1,584$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 22c | 1,544$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.93 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 3c | 1,532$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 10c | 910$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 14c | 888.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…be72backed Yes | 14c | 800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 10c | 700$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…fb21backed Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 15c | 680.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 455$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 454.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 11c | 334.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 12c | 321.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 13c | 290.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…f732backed Yes | 13c | 224$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed Yes | 12c | 163.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 18c | 149.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 9c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 13c | 91.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day 1?this page
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 5-10m views on day 1?No won
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.