Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 5-10m views on day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fbf48cad378602e8f33fea0994e3bd3925a677f3d3501d01a820122ff6fae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 3c | 14,616$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.95 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 4c | 4,250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 4,239$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 3,622$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 2c | 1,613$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 4c | 1,169$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed Yes | 4c | 859.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 2c | 823.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 78c | 757.31$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 27c | 730$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 29c | 437.14$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 29c | 330$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 69c | 320.61$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 13c | 259.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 31c | 147.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 147$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 69c | 99.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…5ec2backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 32c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 5-10m views on day 1?this page
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get less than 5m views on day 1?No won
- Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.