TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,176,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,182,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,176,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 692 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7504…9c69backed Yes19c169,064$32,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,752.63825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes7c160,810$11,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,425616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd303…9c76backed Yes54c154,100$83,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,651.852152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d17…9558backed Yes25c130,522$32,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,544.342025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes65c125,824$82,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,384.432626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-60.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes37c117,812$43,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,193.35431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes1c94,323$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.321910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4f1…5716backed Yes61c87,982$53,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,488.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes56c82,487$46,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,275.463751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed No49c80,981$39,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,187.063537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes57c80,000$45,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,375.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No8c78,786$6,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,777.392240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes16c74,381$12,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,208.372955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes12c72,778$8,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,493.093221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81bb…bd45backed Yes51c71,013$36,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,513.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d3…45d5backed Yes61c66,822$40,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,777.96137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-87.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca62…fbfabacked Yes7c64,629$4,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,755.321442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b8b4backed Yes15c64,602$9,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,989.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f4…8521backed Yes16c62,000$9,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,880837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed Yes53c60,650$32,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,392.682433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824e…265abacked Yes50c58,617$29,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,094.631216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-78.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9808…a8b5backed Yes51c56,251$28,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,882.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed92…e5a1backed Yes43c55,474$23,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,622.27128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid+643.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes62c49,928$31,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,019.731216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No47c48,821$22,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,843.745925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcce…3e55backed No4c46,469$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,791.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick12cpaid+724.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes4c44,669$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.853935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…a348backed Yes50c44,668$22,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,478.964434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes53c39,339$20,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,924.378025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c21…d2febacked Yes53c35,796$18,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,942.183831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f34…3115backed Yes0c32,738$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes42c31,642$13,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,142.987828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No49c31,636$15,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,080.9243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes0c30,257$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2612920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9464…bd9fbacked Yes58c28,070$16,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,408.22214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa072…5353backed Yes56c27,710$15,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,579.242030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd2…d91ebacked Yes72c27,335$19,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,664.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd957…c5ffbacked No10c27,240$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,642.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+518.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes63c27,082$17,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,009.852630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c62…5d44backed Yes49c26,738$13,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,115.512433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeae7…1884backed Yes13c26,035$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.573040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…b6f7backed Yes36c26,033$9,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,246.071915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x005f…2f06backed Yes2c25,584$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes8c24,193$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.537038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe518…b8edbacked Yes50c24,131$12,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,176.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed Yes75c24,015$18,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,101.342524%6 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabc8…698cbacked Yes54c23,472$12,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,635.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+442.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes63c22,542$14,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,201.592250%11 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No35c21,576$7,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,037.7312345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No47c21,440$10,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,284.6957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ce…0f7ebacked Yes7c21,077$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8951…43efbacked No44c20,959$9,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,769.91225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88be…652dbacked Yes13c20,840$2,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,808.6825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+87.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00dc…6ab8backed No4c20,405$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,622.41250%6 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+261.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15c2…1263backed Yes26c20,174$5,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,287.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed Yes54c20,109$10,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,770.632433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes4c20,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde77…04d2backed Yes58c19,793$11,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,435.941233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes55c19,281$10,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6454729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes5c18,777$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.673016.7%5 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked No6c18,329$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,229.231643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+391.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0f…5623backed Yes59c18,027$10,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,723.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef4a…7502backed Yes46c17,693$8,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,182.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick71cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe852…0235backed Yes49c17,658$8,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,686.38955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb914…9f51backed No3c15,932$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,406.65850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+953.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c39…9bdcbacked Yes0c15,111$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e32…efcfbacked Yes0c15,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…8002backed Yes1c15,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a20…b29ebacked Yes73c14,752$10,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,788.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…5343backed Yes66c14,606$9,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,633.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed Yes75c14,196$10,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,602.652937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes1c14,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-95.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb006…a328backed Yes76c13,800$10,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,517.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b70…77f8backed Yes2c12,569$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…8145backed Yes71c12,483$8,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,837.384240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64f3…34b6backed Yes10c12,393$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.034742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes1c12,346$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.028641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes55c12,201$6,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,708.353528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes54c12,002$6,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,431.915339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes45c11,943$5,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,363.182040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes59c11,800$6,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,979.992737%10 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Yes0c11,775$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5097…7f17backed Yes6c11,691$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed Yes25c11,513$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.783212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51e9…c658backed Yes7c11,406$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.892231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+94.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No35c11,120$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.469750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…07cfbacked No4c10,995$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,565.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,179.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c3…4dcebacked Yes5c10,900$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf8…7519backed No49c10,662$5,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.29560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes0c10,480$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.011533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed Yes48c10,278$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,935.842433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ca…e881backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+296.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda99…7f3ebacked Yes1c10,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+739%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x796d…c7cebacked Yes18c9,317$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes0c9,113$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.234330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ae…7126backed Yes41c9,092$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,718.151020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+416.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes25c9,048$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.055414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a0…1de0backed Yes56c8,927$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.181136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10bd…3a02backed Yes61c8,650$5,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,239.851526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x194f…a57cbacked Yes11c8,073$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.