World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca02f54adad0a5a3ab3a6a41dbd9a869d300043fd98038c886cad563cb6e6847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,807,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $874,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,807,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3250…41babacked Yes | 0c | 110,699$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 89,392$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.35 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…19a4backed Yes | 0c | 71,753$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 10cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 0c | 57,417$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 1c | 52,920$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.02 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…c5e2backed Yes | 2c | 51,956$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 44,183$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 2c | 42,187$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…5442backed Yes | 1c | 41,139$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 0c | 37,347$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…e70fbacked Yes | 1c | 36,666$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 34,641$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 34,108$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes | 1c | 33,821$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…4f51backed Yes | 1c | 30,897$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 30,280$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…8521backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 0c | 27,580$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…2dcdbacked Yes | 0c | 26,767$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 0c | 25,253$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…2e7cbacked Yes | 0c | 23,789$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…9a69backed Yes | 1c | 22,885$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 21,626$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc8…cf79backed Yes | 1c | 21,597$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…a540backed Yes | 0c | 20,428$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…c6e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,327$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 1c | 18,302$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 0c | 17,893$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,730$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 0c | 17,435$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 0c | 16,299$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc43f…e7eebacked Yes | 0c | 14,503$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…dde2backed Yes | 0c | 14,470$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 1c | 13,862$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 0c | 13,458$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…58f5backed Yes | 1c | 13,045$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…d6b4backed Yes | 1c | 13,027$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 0c | 12,247$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…5f98backed Yes | 1c | 11,916$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1353…d49dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,197$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 10,915$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…bff0backed Yes | 1c | 10,873$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…581cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,236$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…98eabacked Yes | 1c | 9,362$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +566.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6782…66e4backed Yes | 3c | 9,098$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…4b39backed Yes | 0c | 9,053$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Yes | 0c | 8,277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…7fbfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,970$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…7519backed Yes | 0c | 7,883$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed Yes | 1c | 7,437$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…947abacked Yes | 0c | 7,165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 1c | 6,935$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,904$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…abc3backed Yes | 0c | 6,845$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 6,664$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 6,646$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84c…4b4dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,540$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…8f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,404$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…8a48backed Yes | 1c | 6,310$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 1c | 6,194$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…0f95backed Yes | 1c | 6,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…905ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,926$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,529$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…cee4backed Yes | 0c | 5,290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad07…2877backed Yes | 0c | 5,155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…b7cabacked Yes | 0c | 4,757$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 5cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 4,576$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9751backed Yes | 1c | 4,472$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 1c | 3,966$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 3,741$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 3,696$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…983bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,505$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…dbb5backed Yes | 1c | 3,401$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,186$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…bbf4backed Yes | 1c | 2,926$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 1c | 2,910$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 2,901$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…8c38backed Yes | 1c | 2,890$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…fccabacked Yes | 1c | 2,665$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…f638backed Yes | 0c | 2,633$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b707backed Yes | 1c | 2,489$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…1a9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,944$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,822$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…b663backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed Yes | 1c | 1,701$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,568$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…b329backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 1c | 1,263$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…40bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,144$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb914…3713backed Yes | 1c | 975.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…1891backed Yes | 1c | 922.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…65f1backed Yes | 2c | 848.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 1c | 766.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…4ebcbacked Yes | 3c | 439.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.