World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f648aa9489693e792f3087938cb8979080484b0e98d4e0b041cfe4f64a76d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,393,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,276,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,393,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 112,681$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,862.12 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…41babacked Yes | 2c | 80,347$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…12e9backed Yes | 5c | 79,848$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 0c | 77,546$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 0c | 63,925$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,320.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 3c | 55,000$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6782…66e4backed Yes | 0c | 51,078$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed Yes | 0c | 46,551$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 7c | 46,438$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…e615backed Yes | 5c | 46,221$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 0c | 37,464$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +428.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…c5e2backed Yes | 5c | 32,479$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…8521backed Yes | 2c | 30,199$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 1c | 27,932$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.46 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 4c | 26,030$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.37 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…a328backed Yes | 5c | 25,301$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed Yes | 6c | 22,957$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 22,655$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.56 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 20,952$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.42 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…b674backed Yes | 4c | 20,685$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…49d0backed Yes | 5c | 19,908$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84c…4b4dbacked Yes | 3c | 19,069$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…ec39backed Yes | 4c | 19,000$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 4c | 16,749$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.73 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 4c | 16,333$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.85 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…4038backed Yes | 2c | 16,268$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +454.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 15,946$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b8…258ebacked Yes | 3c | 15,663$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 5c | 15,563$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 6c | 14,537$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…947abacked Yes | 4c | 14,220$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 0c | 14,206$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked Yes | 8c | 14,169$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045e…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 13,827$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…4dcebacked Yes | 4c | 12,999$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 3c | 12,899$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.36 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes | 5c | 12,619$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 8c | 12,513$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 12,318$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.52 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 12,209$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.66 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 0c | 12,045$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 3c | 11,543$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.65 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…5442backed Yes | 4c | 10,669$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 4c | 10,285$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…98eabacked Yes | 5c | 10,152$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +566.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…c6e8backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.61per pick | 27cpaid | +216.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…2dcdbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…247ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…e881backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…5f98backed Yes | 4c | 9,818$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…d7f2backed Yes | 0c | 9,813$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…4b72backed Yes | 6c | 9,617$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…f638backed Yes | 4c | 9,557$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 3c | 9,383$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…e70fbacked Yes | 3c | 9,117$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…4d7fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,054$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…7fbfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,041$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 3c | 9,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…09e9backed Yes | 1c | 8,670$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 8cpaid | +867.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…5f22backed Yes | 4c | 8,666$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…a57cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,552$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,430$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c7cebacked Yes | 6c | 8,119$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…8f1bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,097$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…bd18backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…8a48backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…8705backed Yes | 1c | 7,712$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +316.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…9a69backed Yes | 2c | 7,505$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…cee4backed Yes | 6c | 7,476$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…43efbacked Yes | 3c | 7,438$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…10d9backed Yes | 4c | 7,109$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…d463backed Yes | 4c | 7,105$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,980$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,788$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc8…cf79backed Yes | 2c | 6,712$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…3be2backed Yes | 4c | 6,661$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e1e3backed Yes | 1c | 6,399$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 4c | 6,367$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 6,245$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.31 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 4c | 5,879$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.02 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Yes | 2c | 5,817$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…461cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,718$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +568.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…5837backed Yes | 1c | 5,685$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 5,500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.08 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,280$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…f57bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,251$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 2c | 4,657$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…d99abacked Yes | 6c | 4,630$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,588$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 3c | 4,541$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…980dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,505$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.