World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3331b6df14def2a1c0e366e6f3ffc08fc6744a70190292a243a49695a41caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,101,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $681,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 0c | 101,518$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…627ebacked Yes | 0c | 89,998$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 73,291$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 0c | 66,042$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 50,880$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 43,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 0c | 31,296$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 28,023$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 1c | 21,796$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…420fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…8490backed Yes | 1c | 18,595$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 0c | 12,743$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…cd94backed Yes | 2c | 11,552$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 11,449$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 1c | 11,431$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 0c | 11,010$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…e1b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 0c | 9,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 0c | 8,974$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 0c | 8,729$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4080backed Yes | 1c | 8,611$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,621$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,077$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 0c | 5,840$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…dbb5backed Yes | 0c | 4,869$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,174$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…83ebbacked Yes | 2c | 4,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…bfd4backed Yes | 1c | 3,708$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…857dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,547$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 3,432$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 0c | 2,954$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…16bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,751$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…33bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb914…3713backed Yes | 1c | 2,507$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 1c | 2,451$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,364$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 1c | 1,940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…04d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,799$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…bf2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,772$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…69a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,638$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…a4ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,623$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,616$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…e740backed Yes | 3c | 1,189$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.