World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264760b057978e8bf0aa5f31fd94ca6b6173e84a89075021f9a67995b4dd7eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,351,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $727,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,351,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 1c | 159,841$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 0c | 111,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…04d2backed Yes | 2c | 91,353$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 65,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 0c | 53,684$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824e…265abacked Yes | 1c | 49,917$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…bd9fbacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 3c | 32,958$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 32,811$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.74 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 0c | 31,877$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…84b7backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 1c | 28,011$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.59 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes | 3c | 27,867$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 2c | 27,660$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.59 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 4c | 20,214$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…420fbacked Yes | 2c | 19,444$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 3c | 18,505$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 2c | 17,345$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.91 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 1c | 15,458$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed Yes | 1c | 15,145$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 0c | 13,919$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…8490backed Yes | 1c | 13,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 2c | 12,071$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,876$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 0c | 11,629$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes | 3c | 11,366$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…eaf9backed Yes | 0c | 11,155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…75a5backed Yes | 0c | 9,583$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 4c | 9,290$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +647.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 3c | 9,069$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,446$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f73…8d13backed Yes | 2c | 5,695$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…21dabacked Yes | 1c | 5,279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,553$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,077$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…0cf1backed Yes | 0c | 4,027$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 1c | 3,833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 4c | 3,696$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,479$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…de94backed Yes | 0c | 3,320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes | 5c | 3,185$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…35bcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 1c | 3,080$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…e19abacked Yes | 7c | 3,002$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,992$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…16bfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,747$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 3c | 2,732$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,465$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 2c | 2,405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…bfd4backed Yes | 3c | 2,305$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,196$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…dbb5backed Yes | 2c | 2,107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f9…26d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,742$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,633$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…83ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,562$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,530$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Yes | 1c | 1,403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…33bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,361$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…3c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,317$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 3c | 1,269$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ab9ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,268$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +74%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 1c | 1,133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +886%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb5…a5f6backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 3c | 900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 5c | 874.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 852.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 1c | 824.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed Yes | 5c | 811.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 3c | 697.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…e740backed Yes | 5c | 682.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4080backed Yes | 5c | 627.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…c0e4backed Yes | 3c | 510$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc25…1cafbacked Yes | 2c | 477$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…1891backed Yes | 5c | 426.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 6c | 408.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…cd94backed Yes | 5c | 280.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b7…19dbbacked Yes | 4c | 269$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d68…5205backed Yes | 4c | 238$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 212$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.