World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7296b8d619bd27c229250207dfd025b47264a2754067fb0ee318e12016e7ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,157,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,614,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,157,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 727 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 74c | 175,767$129,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,302.01 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa563…d023backed Yes | 6c | 116,679$6,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,105.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +491.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 10c | 97,426$9,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,814.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…e5a1backed Yes | 1c | 86,037$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,071.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +643.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 38c | 85,436$32,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,610.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 6c | 83,572$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,695.02 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…a328backed Yes | 17c | 78,066$13,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,922.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3cfcbacked Yes | 9c | 74,022$6,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,115.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +971.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…23b4backed Yes | 5c | 57,974$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,073.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 6c | 50,000$3,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 65c | 46,354$29,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,971.02 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…0235backed Yes | 37c | 45,692$16,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,829.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…17e7backed Yes | 6c | 44,873$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,144.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…8705backed Yes | 6c | 41,882$2,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,541.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +316.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 41,405$10,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,876.81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 5c | 40,924$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,065.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…662bbacked No | 15c | 40,737$6,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,192.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 40,257$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.89 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 72c | 39,326$28,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,033.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…8521backed Yes | 18c | 36,937$6,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,199.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 34c | 35,783$12,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,593.56 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3a…e2abbacked Yes | 4c | 35,636$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,033.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +641.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 36c | 35,168$12,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,425.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 32,372$24,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,390.02 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 23c | 31,525$7,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,216.35 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…baccbacked Yes | 12c | 31,319$3,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,469.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…6bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 30,628$8,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,333.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes | 5c | 30,588$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,959.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 29,057$8,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,424.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 53c | 28,687$15,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,362.17 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9217backed Yes | 22c | 26,770$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,970.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 10c | 25,324$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,841.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +93%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 41c | 24,935$10,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,663.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 16c | 24,853$3,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,990.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 22c | 24,458$5,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,076.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 33c | 24,072$7,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,210.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes | 51c | 23,841$12,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,614.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…98eabacked Yes | 4c | 23,532$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,649.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +566.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…f866backed Yes | 8c | 23,381$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,548.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +537.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 3c | 23,104$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,427.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Yes | 3c | 22,136$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,385.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,373.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 25c | 21,500$5,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,096.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.61per pick | 27cpaid | +216.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 31c | 21,259$6,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,720.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No | 24c | 20,060$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 40c | 19,736$7,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,813.54 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 11c | 19,258$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,157.68 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 27c | 18,891$5,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,865.42 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 10c | 18,531$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,588.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5324backed Yes | 35c | 18,475$6,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,920.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed Yes | 34c | 18,344$6,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,132.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…a57cbacked Yes | 33c | 18,009$5,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,099.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 43c | 17,919$7,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,213.8 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…2798backed No | 72c | 17,608$12,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,650.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…8ef2backed Yes | 4c | 17,202$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,534.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…41babacked Yes | 6c | 15,778$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,784.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 6c | 15,716$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,837.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1f9bbacked Yes | 4c | 15,623$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,973.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,307%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…5343backed Yes | 38c | 15,105$5,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,371.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 30c | 14,717$4,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,272.79 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 14,674$5,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,526.85 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 7c | 14,236$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,258.6 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 13,965$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.38 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 49c | 13,391$6,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,767.11 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 18c | 13,226$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,816.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…e881backed Yes | 10c | 13,032$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,664.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…7ca4backed Yes | 3c | 13,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,610 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…4a19backed Yes | 5c | 12,276$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,702.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +970.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…a5eabacked Yes | 4c | 12,090$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,597.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +514%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 27c | 12,029$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,806.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…7f17backed Yes | 41c | 11,581$4,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 60c | 11,457$6,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579.89 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Yes | 10c | 11,393$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,219.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 53c | 11,274$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,273.51 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Yes | 8c | 11,136$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,260.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 3c | 11,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,689.99 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…6e0ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,867$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,327.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +704.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…130dbacked No | 53c | 10,837$5,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,701.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 22c | 10,268$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,985.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 63c | 10,170$6,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,812.93 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 40c | 10,170$4,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,058.73 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 24c | 10,048$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,587.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…bb03backed Yes | 37c | 9,994$3,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,316.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 39c | 9,982$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,135.33 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 70c | 9,708$6,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.01 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…a8b5backed Yes | 37c | 9,251$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,870.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 13c | 9,228$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.56 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824e…265abacked No | 62c | 8,824$5,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,470.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…337fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,760$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,311.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +625.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 28c | 7,725$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,552.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…fbbfbacked Yes | 4c | 7,701$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,401.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,185.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…8f51backed Yes | 37c | 7,622$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,780.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…27b7backed Yes | 4c | 7,602$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,279.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,076.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 7,580$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,803.93 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 14c | 7,328$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,327.78 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c7cebacked Yes | 44c | 7,307$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…eaf9backed Yes | 21c | 7,266$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,765.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73a…66bcbacked Yes | 9c | 7,249$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,591.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +263.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e68…5472backed Yes | 23c | 7,236$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,560.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed Yes | 7c | 7,043$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,578.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.