World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0587bec9d48499678739a44da2e8087011a05246fcae1562edea215ec857fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,257,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $765,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,257,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 1c | 372,753$5,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,466.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 0c | 62,815$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…bff0backed Yes | 0c | 36,773$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…e70fbacked Yes | 1c | 35,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 0c | 32,461$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…41babacked Yes | 0c | 30,523$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 0c | 30,330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…6b06backed Yes | 2c | 23,583$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…98ebbacked Yes | 3c | 23,239$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 5c | 20,642$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 0c | 18,929$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 18,903$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 1c | 17,806$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…c5e2backed Yes | 2c | 17,656$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 0c | 17,133$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 17,036$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.03 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 15,687$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…c6e8backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 1c | 14,167$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…19a4backed Yes | 0c | 14,014$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 10cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 1c | 13,987$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…a540backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…9a69backed Yes | 2c | 10,929$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 3c | 9,778$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.55 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 1c | 9,658$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 1c | 9,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 1c | 8,816$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…2dcdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,412$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,572$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…08c0backed Yes | 3c | 7,552$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 1c | 7,161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…7519backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 1c | 5,967$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…bfd4backed Yes | 1c | 5,914$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 1c | 5,781$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 1c | 4,001$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 1c | 3,971$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…abc3backed Yes | 0c | 3,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,670$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…de44backed Yes | 3c | 2,400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,303$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1353…d49dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,448$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 1c | 1,053$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 999.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 1c | 959.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 754.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa6…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a0…601dbacked Yes | 3c | 678.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…c0e4backed Yes | 2c | 567.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 426.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.67 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.