Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ad898f4bd3d4d3d23f7b42a2d1d87e0c4d6a251b70f8ff97408a5a7d92f307

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $381,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,627 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	7c	31,786$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,249.81	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	20,762$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.65	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	20c	12,976$2,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,658.95	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	16c	12,154$1,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,884.38	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	12,000$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,024.68	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	10,621$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	10c	5,791$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.45	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	26c	5,655$1,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,467.41	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	6c	5,577$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.27	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff5…9711backed Yes	6c	5,514$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.29	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes	11c	5,173$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	18c	4,619$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.74	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	13c	4,405$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.4	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	4c	4,248$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.73	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	23c	3,779$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.22	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	18c	3,526$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.73	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	19c	2,943$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.94	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	3c	2,910$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	13c	2,612$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.57	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	2,588$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes	39c	2,448$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.71	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,227$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.34	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	2,198$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	13c	2,171$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,137$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	16c	2,065$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.21	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	26c	2,000$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes	10c	1,937$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+83.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	3c	1,904$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	1,793$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.7	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	15c	1,789$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.28	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	7c	1,701$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.88	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	63c	1,700$1,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$635.99	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	18c	1,619$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.94	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	16c	1,565$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.08	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	18c	1,525$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.83	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	16c	1,516$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.82	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	22c	1,427$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9d…2317backed Yes	8c	1,394$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.38	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	1,376$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.62	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	8c	1,307$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.9	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	1,255$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.83	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes	13c	1,200$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.49	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	27c	1,200$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.99	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes	18c	1,190$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes	13c	1,186$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.59	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,172$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.96	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	25c	1,155$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.14	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	16c	1,150$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.9	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	15c	1,110$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.3	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes	19c	1,058$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	22c	1,045$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.15	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	3c	1,003$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	8c	988.44$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.39	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb2…76f2backed Yes	10c	978.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	25c	895.83$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.81	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	11c	892.57$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.18	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c6…8effbacked Yes	17c	882.35$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+141.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes	32c	858.51$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.01	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes	19c	857.65$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.71	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-28%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	14c	841.17$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	15c	802.27$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.34	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	16c	773.56$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	4c	748.63$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	28c	727.13$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	17c	690.19$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.04	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes	6c	682.02$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa94e…91e5backed Yes	13c	680$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	14c	649.02$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.36	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	20c	636.8$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.3	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	8c	620$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.05	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	17c	594.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	17c	590$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.3	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329b…2d4fbacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes	36c	578.03$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.27	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	28c	570.65$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.01	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	29c	543.45$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.19	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	18c	520$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.36	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No	78c	500$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	106	65.1%69 W · 37 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	26c	500$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes	3c	481.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+111.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes	23c	458.26$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4265…1cc3backed Yes	15c	454.61$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.6	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	24c	452$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.5	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	19c	450.37$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.48	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes	33c	450$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Yes	32c	438.99$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc65…29b4backed Yes	28c	421.72$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…3fe2backed Yes	36c	400$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.44	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes	24c	394.46$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes	15c	390$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.7	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes	9c	388.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event