Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf220cc2f402846ace2be33e7e148adae9b4a863578c08d312e40f366ee19af1

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 11, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $603,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $377,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	47,132$1,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,378.3	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	31,880$1,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,565.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	21,428$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	12c	20,775$2,420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,420.4	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	11c	19,167$2,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,144.44	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	13c	12,141$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,634.54	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	16c	11,861$1,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,939.86	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	11,000$2,215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,214.8	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	1c	10,385$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.86	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb2…76f2backed Yes	1c	10,182$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	1c	9,256$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.17	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,480$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	2c	6,987$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.73	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Yes	3c	6,290$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	6,050$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.51	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa881…de70backed Yes	1c	5,688$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	5c	5,656$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.87	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	5,366$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.93	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	7c	5,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes	8c	4,463$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.4	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	1c	4,212$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,931$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.23	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,501$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.67	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	25c	3,406$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$864	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	3,127$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	10c	3,120$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.24	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	8c	3,117$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.68	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	8c	2,922$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.19	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	11c	2,793$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.4	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	2,762$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.06	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes	19c	2,758$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.33	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes	9c	2,673$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.2	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	12c	2,606$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	16c	2,438$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.58	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	12c	2,276$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.86	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	12c	2,066$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.64	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	21c	2,040$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.81	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	9c	1,900$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.61	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	14c	1,815$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.23	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	4c	1,647$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.42	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	16c	1,600$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.76	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	17c	1,438$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.6	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	19c	1,430$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.77	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	1,365$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	10c	1,300$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	72	9.7%7 W · 65 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	1,187$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	20c	1,155$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.75	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51c6…c26dbacked Yes	1c	1,105$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	2c	895.92$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	875$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.53	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	9c	738.18$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	22c	717.79$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.69	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No	76c	710$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes	25c	684.53$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.78	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No	76c	682.94$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.27	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6c…c1ecbacked No	75c	672.95$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	25c	649.99$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.5	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed No	76c	600$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.75	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	21c	599.97$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes	18c	588.03$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	16c	565.46$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.87	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No	71c	559.52$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.26	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	4c	540.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50d8…979ebacked Yes	31c	535.53$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	14c	510$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb163…6062backed Yes	22c	481.78$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	23cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	17c	473.37$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.46	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…082abacked No	74c	437.99$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.88	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	415.35$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.23	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da9…fa9fbacked Yes	4c	356.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No	71c	350$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	16c	339.74$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.19	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a17…0389backed Yes	9c	331.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c04…1d01backed Yes	5c	302$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe197…5667backed No	79c	297.62$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.69	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f0…7764backed Yes	3c	296.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	24c	287.53$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.9	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc384…1046backed No	79c	286.15$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.98	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No	76c	284.49$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd9…1c69backed Yes	4c	280.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes	11c	261.1$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	86	15.1%13 W · 73 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes	25c	250$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked No	78c	250$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	15c	250$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b8…225dbacked No	70c	245.94$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.78	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3897…6f36backed Yes	17c	245$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…2e64backed Yes	21c	236.28$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…981ebacked Yes	30c	229.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+107.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed Yes	22c	223.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	13c	207.69$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes	7c	204.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6947…001fbacked Yes	16c	200.07$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	26c	200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1b…49b5backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed No	69c	199$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.69	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event